fter getting punched in the mouth against Michigan, Auburn doesn’t get time to lick their wounds. Rick Pitino and St. John’s are waiting — and this matchup will test Auburn’s toughness, depth, and short-memory mentality.
St. John’s enters the game as the analytics favorite. KenPom, Barttorvik, and ESPN’s predictor all lean Red Storm, giving them a 58% chance to win. And honestly? It’s because St. John’s looks a lot like Auburn…just deeper.
What St. John’s Does Well
This team can hoop:
- 95.3 points per game (they can score in bunches)
- 50.9% shooting from the field
- 36% from three
- Switches 1 through 5 defensively
- Long wings, disruptive hands, constant pressure
- Legitimate bench depth
They’re built for tournament play — multiple games, short rest, rotating waves of athletes.
Auburn? Not quite there yet.
Where Auburn Must Improve
This game isn’t about talent. It’s about:
1. Energy & Effort
You can’t give away loose balls, miss box-outs, or allow rhythm threes. Auburn did all that vs Michigan. If that version shows up again, St. John’s wins comfortably.
2. Off-ball Movement
Against a switching defense, you MUST set good screens, cut sharply, and make defenders work. Auburn made Michigan’s life too easy.
3. Free Throws & Rim Finishing
St. John’s doesn’t foul much — but when they do, Auburn has to cash in. Auburn needs the whistle to help them because St. John’s depth is their biggest advantage. You want their rotation players watching the game instead of playing in it.
4. Someone Has to Step Up at Wing
Overton has struggled.
Hall looked gassed.
Walker’s still ramping up.
Somebody has to give Auburn consistent production on the perimeter.
Keys to the Game
✔ Tahad Pettiford must be a scorer AND a playmaker
✔ Murphy and Jović need to bring the same energy they showed vs Michigan
✔ Hall must be physical early
✔ Auburn MUST create turnovers — their best games come when transition offense fuels the scoring
✔ Bench minutes are essential — even if they aren’t perfect, Auburn needs bodies
Prediction
Analytics say St. John’s by 4–5.
But if Auburn returns to its energy identity? This turns into a coin-flip battle.
This one is going to come down to legs, effort, and who’s still standing in the final five minutes.
fter getting punched in the mouth against Michigan, Auburn doesn’t get time to lick their wounds. Rick Pitino and St. John’s are waiting — and this matchup will test Auburn’s toughness, depth, and short-memory mentality.
St. John’s enters the game as the analytics favorite. KenPom, Barttorvik, and ESPN’s predictor all lean Red Storm, giving them a 58% chance to win. And honestly? It’s because St. John’s looks a lot like Auburn…just deeper.
What St. John’s Does Well
This team can hoop:
- 95.3 points per game (they can score in bunches)
- 50.9% shooting from the field
- 36% from three
- Switches 1 through 5 defensively
- Long wings, disruptive hands, constant pressure
- Legitimate bench depth
They’re built for tournament play — multiple games, short rest, rotating waves of athletes.
Auburn? Not quite there yet.
Where Auburn Must Improve
This game isn’t about talent. It’s about:
1. Energy & Effort
You can’t give away loose balls, miss box-outs, or allow rhythm threes. Auburn did all that vs Michigan. If that version shows up again, St. John’s wins comfortably.
2. Off-ball Movement
Against a switching defense, you MUST set good screens, cut sharply, and make defenders work. Auburn made Michigan’s life too easy.
3. Free Throws & Rim Finishing
St. John’s doesn’t foul much — but when they do, Auburn has to cash in. Auburn needs the whistle to help them because St. John’s depth is their biggest advantage. You want their rotation players watching the game instead of playing in it.
4. Someone Has to Step Up at Wing
Overton has struggled.
Hall looked gassed.
Walker’s still ramping up.
Somebody has to give Auburn consistent production on the perimeter.
Keys to the Game
✔ Tahaad Pettiford must be a scorer AND a playmaker
✔ Murphy and Jović need to bring the same energy they showed vs Michigan
✔ Hall must be physical early
✔ Auburn MUST create turnovers — their best games come when transition offense fuels the scoring
✔ Bench minutes are essential — even if they aren’t perfect, Auburn needs bodies
Follow The War Rapport:
X (Twitter)
Instagram
