Ok, so last weekend was definitely more dicey than we expected. Bama looks just as vulnerable as they were last year, and in the same exact spots to boot. How often does that happen to an Alabama team under Saban?
South Carolina isn’t for real, Mizzou still can’t defend, and Vandy definitely isn’t to be taken seriously this year. Got it. What else did we learn? Let’s take a look and see.
Last week wasn’t our best work by a long shot:
Alabama -21 ❌
Alabama vs Texas OVER 64.5 ❌
South Carolina +9 ❌
South Carolina vs Arkansas UNDER 56 ❌
Mizzou +7 ❌
App St +18 ✔
Tennessee -5 ✔
Tennessee vs Pitt OVER 62.5 ❌
Kentucky vs Florida UNDER 51.5 ✔
Auburn -24 ❌
San Jose St vs Auburn OVER 48.5 ❌
Miss St -11 ✔
Week 2: 4-8; Overall 11-11
That’s a rough week. 4-8 wouldn’t even make a bowl game. The only improvement I could have foreseen was not betting the home team. I broke my own rule, and now we’re back to even money. Can’t cry about it now.
At least we know that Mizzou can be trusted and that Florida was just a flash in the pan against a fish-out-of-water Utah team. Kentucky’s defense might be for real, but their offense certainly isn’t. 16 offensive points just isn’t anything to write home about for either of the teams in that matchup, so the under may be in play for their games going forward.
Let’s take those notes into Week 3 and get our heads above water.
Georgia (-25) vs South Carolina (+25)
O/U: 55
Kick: 12:00pm ET
Location: Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, SC
Broadcast: ESPN
Let’s not belabor the point here. Georgia? Good. South Carolina? Meh.
The only question here is what exactly Georgia’s game plan will be against the defenses they play each week. They seemed to know that passing was the way to go against Oregon, then dialed it back against Samford last week. That’s a good sign for them. That means whatever needs to be done to win a game, they’ll be able to do it. For bettors? It means we have to do some guessing.
South Carolina’s defense isn’t bad, but they gave up a bunch of ground yards to Arkansas. Some of that could be because KJ Jefferson is a monster of a QB and his running ability makes room for Arkansas RBs too. It could mean Arkansas just has a monster of an O-line and they’ll be able to run well against anybody this year. Or it could mean that South Carolina is weak against the run, as evidenced by the 200 yards they gave up to Georgia St in week 1.
Since that seems to be South Carolina’s weakness, I’d bet that’s where Georgia will attack, which will shorten the game a bit and allow for fewer points to be put up. And with the Georgia defense only giving up 3 points through 2 games, I don’t expect this to be much of a fight. I’m taking Georgia to cover and the under on the point total.
Georgia -25, Under 55
Penn St (-3) vs Auburn (+3)
O/U: 47.5
Kick: 3:30pm ET
Location: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL
Broadcast: CBS
Don’t bet the home team…don’t bet the home team…don’t bet the home team…
We haven’t looked very good on offense so far this year. While progress is evident, results are mixed at best, and that makes it really hard to know how to bet the spread on this game. So I won’t.
Even more detrimental to an accurate pick is the fact that we really don’t know who we are on offense yet. Is TJ Finley starting to get it? Is Robby Ashford going to do more than just run when he gets in the game? Were the coaches keeping things close to the chest the first couple of weeks? Will the players be more hyped up for this as a revenge game?
The only thing I’m willing to say for certain is that our run game is legit and that playing the same QB for the 2nd straight year with our coaches having a better understanding of our defensive personnel will equip with everything they need to produce a better defensive game plan than last year. So points should be low. I’m most certain about that, so the Under is the only thing I’m willing to bet on.
The madman in me wants to take Auburn on the ML. Which I just might do, but I won’t recommend that you do the same here.
Under 47.5
Ole Miss (-17) vs Georgia Tech (+17)
O/U: 63
Kick: 3:30pm ET
Location: Bobby Dodd Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Broadcast: ABC
Lane Kiffin still hasn’t named a starting QB. Without the time to go back and watch their first 2 games of the season, a brief glimpse of their early season numbers shows that both QBs have played ok. They’ve taken the first 2 games to figure out who they want to be on offense, and Lane Kiffin won’t commit to either guy.
But Ole Miss is still a decent SEC team that is built well enough to compete in their division. And that’s a far cry away from what Georgia Tech is at the moment.
The Yellow Jackets have been putrid on offense, and that isn’t just their matchup in the Clemson game to open the season. In their Week 2 matchup against Western Carolina, they 26 first downs while only gaining 15. They allowed 390 yards of offense while only gaining 343 yards themselves. To their credit, they picked off the Western Carolina QB 3 times while only throwing 1 INT, but they lost TOP ~40min to 20min. They can’t stay on the field because they’re bad at offense.
Because of that showing, it’s an easy decision to go for the Ole Miss cover. I would expect a little resistance from Georgia Tech’s defense to keep Ole Miss from going too crazy on offense, but I expect Georgia Tech’s offense to continue to be very bad. Because of that, I’m also taking the under here.
Ole Miss -17, Under 63
Vandy (+2.5) vs Northern Illinois (-2.5)
O/U: 58.5
Kick: 3:30pm ET
Location: Huskie Stadium, DeKalb, IL
Broadcast: CBS Sports Network
Vandy had their shot to prove their worth against a P5 school that had something to play for. Wake Forest QB Sam Hartman got back into action and didn’t miss a beat, putting up 45 points on the ‘Dores in Nashville.
Welp. Maybe they aren’t ready quite yet.
So Vandy hits the road to pick on somebody their own proverbial size. Northern Illinois isn’t a good team, but neither is Vandy, so it’s very difficult to gauge where to go. When I have no idea, I pass on the bet. If Vandy is going to show us something, let them show us. I’m not betting my money on it though.
Pass
LA Monroe (+50) vs Alabama (-50)
O/U: 61.5
Kick: 4:00pm ET
Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
Broadcast: SEC Network
I’d usually open up this preview by saying “Bama is Bama. Bet on Bama.” But Bama wasn’t Bama last week. They should be themselves against LA Monroe, but I’m starting to wonder if there will be some ill-effects after their close win in Austin last week.
LA Monroe isn’t good, and even if they were, they don’t have the horses to hang with Bama. If a team can’t cross the talent threshold it takes to be competitive in the big leagues, they’ll get beat up pretty badly when they play teams with elite talent. Both of those boxes should be checked here.
Alabama will want to wipe the taste of last week’s showing out of their mouths early, so I expect them to come out fired up against an overmatched LA Monroe. They should handle business early and take the foot off the gas, with this being their last opportunity to get some reps for their 2nd and 3rd string players. That’s why I’m not particularly keen on this bet. Could they? Sure. Will they? Eh. Let’s not and say we did. This is a pass for me.
The point total? I’m ok with making this under pick. 56-3 sounds feasible, and I don’t expect this defense – who showed fairly well against Texas – to give up more than 7 points.
Under 61.5
Miss St (-3) vs LSU (+3)
O/U: 53
Kick: 6:00pm ET
Location: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA
Broadcast: ESPN
Ok, here’s to finally being right about a team. Miss St is exactly who we thought they’d be in year 3 of the Mike Leach experiment. Once he’s found his QB, the system is steady and efficient. Will Rogers is making his case as an NFL prospect and Miss St is going to win the games they should win.
The question is, should they win this game?
We still don’t really know who LSU is, only that their starting QB is a good runner and just ok passer. And what’s worse, Bryan Kelly seems to be going through a bit of a culture shock with his team being handed over from a lax player’s coach in Eddie O. The buy in is questionable, and that doesn’t mean the players won’t play hard. It means the motivation to digest all the details and to play for more than themselves might be missing. In a game where the passing game is surgical, I think it makes a difference. Especially with LSU missing a key inside presence due to injury.
LSU isn’t the scary team at home that it was for a decade under Saban and Les Miles. They can be beaten and they can be beaten at home. Mike Leach has the offense to do it. Give me Miss St to cover, but I’m staying away from the totals. I would have bet the Miss St game vs Auburn last year would be an under. How did that work out?
Miss St -3
Akron (+47.5) vs Tennessee (-47.5)
O/U: 66.5
Kick: 7:00pm ET
Location: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN
Broadcast: ESPN+
Tennessee won a gritty game on the road at Pitt last week (as predicted) but they didn’t look as dominant as I expected them to. I would have expected at least 40 points from that Tennessee offense in regulation, yet they managed only 27. Not that those 27 were anything to sneeze at against a good Pitt defense.
So coming home to collect themselves before their conference schedule kicks off, what will we see? We could see them run away with it, certainly. But that Pitt win has people expecting big things from them, and that means a wide spread. Akron isn’t good, but 48pt wins means the other team does absolutely nothing and the favored team plays pretty close to perfect. Is Tennessee ready to perfect? Especially after a big win and before conference play? I’m not so sure.
Tennessee is plenty talented, but I’m skeptical with how wide this spread is. If Joe Milton gets in the game, Tennessee’s offense will come to a halt, and that may make the difference here late. Which is why I’m taking Akron 47.5.
Akron +47.5
South Florida (+23.5) vs Florida (-23.5)
O/U: 58.5
Kick: 7:30pm ET
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL
Broadcast: SEC Network
After an underwhelming offensive showing against a good Kentucky defense, I’m certain that Florida will have something to prove in their last tune-up matchup against South Florida. South Florida isn’t especially good at anything, even if you factor in their Week 2 win over FCS Howard.
Florida wants that old Week 1 feeling back, and they’ll need to bring it vs South Florida. The offensive output from the loss to Kentucky will need to be corrected and they’ll attempt to do so in this game. There’s a certain urgency that comes from looking bad at home, and I think that pushes Florida to cover here. I won’t touch the point total though. We still don’t know who they are on defense yet.
Florida -23.5
Miami (+6.5) vs Texas A&M (-6.5)
O/U: 44.5
Kick: 9:00pm ET
Location: Kyle Field, College Station, TX
Broadcast: ESPN
I got quite the kick out of Jimothy losing to App St last week. Not only has the shine started to come off of him nationally, but we called that cover and made some money betting on Jimothy’s downfall. Quite the pleasing 2-for-1.
It was obviously a bad decision to start Haynes King at QB, but Jimbo did it anyway. Either he’s a bad coach that shouldn’t be coaching or calling offense, or he’s a spineless pawn of a head coach that starts the QB that his money overlords tell him to. Either way, he’s in over his head and needs to be removed from his post.
So the late week decision to go with Max Johnson is extremely interesting. It’s either Jimbo correcting course or the boosters who forced him to play Haynes King admitting they were wrong. Each case is good for Texas A&M, but is it too late for the offense to click with Johnson against Miami? Practice and game reps matter, and Johnson hasn’t gotten much of either.
So what’s to be expected today? The petty in me always wants to bet against Jimbo, but I do have some respect for Max Johnson as a QB. He’s not an elite talent, but a team with a good defense and strong running game doesn’t need an elite QB to rack up wins. Max Johnson should be exactly what they need, but their O line also couldn’t really move App St out of the way last weekend. So will that running game get the job done? I’m not so sure.
Give me Miami +6.5. Objectively, of course.
Miami +6.5
So that’s the betting weekend. Which picks do you like? Love? Hate? Let me know in the comments below, and check back for the picks as the betting weekend progresses. Most importantly, just sit back and enjoy the games. Week 3 is underway!
Catch more betting conversation with B Wil on The War Rapport’s Twitter Account.
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