How many wins will Auburn Football get in 2024?
The Tigers are headed into the 2024 season with a lot of change. With that change comes new expectations. Will the changes and the expectations amount to more wins for an Auburn team that went just 6-7 last year, including an embarrassing end to the season where the Tigers lost at home to an FCS opponent (New Mexico State), a last second loss to arch rival Alabama, and a beat down in the Music City Bowl against Maryland. Ike Jones gives his thoughts on this edition of Boss, Toss, and Loss.
BOSS
Starting the season fast is going to be imperative for this team. With 5 straight home games to start, the Tigers will have a chance to do just that. I see wins in all of the first 4 home games.
The Alabama A&M and New Mexico games should not be a contest. Auburn should have a talent gap that makes up for any unsettled offensive play or any adjustments that would be happening under the new defense, led by DJ Durkin. If, somehow, these games are within 2 scores, Auburn could be in for a long season. I expect the margin to be significant and the 2nd and 3rd string will have opportunities to get meaningful snaps.
The Cal and Arkansas games should also be wins. However, I do expect those games to be a bit closer. Cal will come to Jordan-Hare Stadium feeling confident, based on the close game last season at Cal. With a new QB and the return of Jayden Ott, this team will feel as if they can keep this close. They just might do that, for a half. I fully expect Auburn to pull away in this one late.
Arkansas, on the other hand, will come in smarting from a beat down by Auburn last year in Fayetteville. With the new offense, coordinated by Bobby Patrino and led by Boise State transfer QB Taylen Green, the Razorbacks will give Auburn a fight. However, again, I expect the home team to pull away late in this one.
Later in the season, Auburn faces Vanderbilt and ULM. Vanderbilt will have a new QB, Offensive Coordinator, and Offensive analyst, all from the New Mexico State team that beat Auburn at home last season. Coupled with the Defensive Coordinator duties being handled by Head Coach Clark Lea, some might be tempted to think this game will be a toss up. I do not share that thought. I think Auburn will not fall asleep at the wheel and they handle the Commodores with no issue.
Louisinana-Monroe will try to repeat the late season heroics of New Mexico and come in to Jordan-Hare and a big underdog and steal an upset win. However, I think this Auburn will be up to the task and not overlook the team late, this time.
LOSS
I only have one team on my list of losses this season, and that is the Georgia Bulldogs. For my money, Georgia is the best team, top to bottom, in the country. Auburn played Georgia tough last season, at home. However, this game will be in Sanford Stadium. Recent history aside, Auburn will have a difficult time with the Bulldogs in their first road game of the season. A redshirt Freshman starting Center in a loud SEC road environment with a QB that has struggled against quality road opponents feels like a recipe for a loss.
TOSS
I have Auburn with 5 toss up games on the schedule: Oklahoma, Missouri, Kentucky, Texas A&M, and Alabama.
The Oklahoma matchup will be an interesting game. I think the first road SEC test for Oklahoma gives Auburn a bit of an edge. However, I expect the strength of this Sooners team to be the defense and defense travels. If Auburn can be more physical than Oklahoma, they have a shot with a raucous home crowd urging them forward. This one is too close to call before seeing these teams in action during the season.
After going on the road to Athens, Auburn has two more road contests. The first of those is the road game against Missouri. Pre-Season polls and Vegas odds show this as a clear win for the home Tigers. I, however, feel like this game is more of a toss up. Auburn will be coming off of a bye week. That additional week to prepare and questions about the defense for Missouri this season have me feeling a bit more optimistic about the visiting Tigers in CoMo.
Next up, on the road trip, are the Kentucky Wildcats. Kentucky always seems to be a mystery. They are known for stout, physical defenses under Coach Stoops. However, I am not sure about their offense this season. The signal caller this year will be the transfer from Georgia, Brock Vandergriff. It’s unclear what style of play he will bring to the offense. Though Kentucky usually has a good offensive line, I am not so sure that offense will be clicking on all cylinders at that point in the season. I will put this one in the toss column as well.
Next, Auburn returns home to face the Aggies from Texas A&M. Last season, Auburn was not very good in College Station. However, this is an entirely different team with a new Head Coach and new coordinators. I am not sure what to make of this Aggie team just yet. So, the unknowns have me leaving this one in the toss column.
Lastly, speaking of the anomalous, Auburn faces Alabama in the Iron Bowl to finish the season, per usual. However, this will be the first time for Coach Kalen Deboer as the Tide’s Head Coach. I have no idea what to expect from Alabama this season. With the nature of this rivalry game and the fireworks it brings, coupled with the new coach, and a ton of uncertainty, I am putting this one in the Toss Column. Had this been a home game for the Tigers, I would be tempted to put it over in the Boss column.
FLOOR AND CEILING
I think the floor for this team is 6-6 this year. It would not be a good outcome for the Tigers to only win 6 games in year 2 under Coach Hugh Freeze. However, I can see a scenario where Auburn can only pull off another year of Bowl Eligibility and search for answers on offense.
Conversely, the ceiling for this team is high. I can see a path where Auburn is contending for the conference and playing their way into the first 12-team playoff. If Auburn can get all of the games in the boss column and, somehow, win the Toss up games as well, that puts the Tigers ceiling at 11 wins.
I think the truth of what this team can be lies somewhere in the middle. The Vegas oddsmakers have Auburn set at 7.5 wins this season. I think that is the right number. We will learn a lot about this team early this season during those first 5 games.
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