We finished nicely last week, only losing our bet on Mizzou to cover. I guess it was one of those situations where Vandy knew this was the most winnable game left on their schedule and needed to leave it all on the field. Understandable. But that result also means that Mizzou still isn’t much better on offense, despite their improved efforts against Georgia and Florida.
Week 8:
LSU -1 ✔
Ole Miss vs LSU OVER 64.5 ✔
Mizzou -14 ❌
Alabama -21.5 ✔
South Carolina +3 ✔
Week 8: 4-1
Overall 30-31-3
Arkansas (-4.5) vs Auburn (+4.5)
O/U: 60.5
Kick: 12:00pm ET
Location: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL
Broadcast: SEC Network
Well, we’re back again. Auburn Football comes out of its bye looking to make something out of the rest of its season. They couldn’t have asked for a more favorable matchup than Arkansas. Arkansas has a bad defense, mostly due to their exceptionally poor pass defense. So a struggling Auburn offense is getting exactly what they need coming out of a bye after finally showing some life on offense against Ole Miss two weeks ago: a test of their progress on offense and especially the offensive line.
In contrast, Arkansas is trying to keep things together after high expectations for this season have gone mostly unmet. They failed to improve on defense this season while their offense has taken a step back, mostly due to the lack of a passing game. Their running game is still plenty potent though, so Auburn’s faulty LB core may have their hands full.
What this game will serve as is a barometer of how much Auburn has actually improved from the beginning of the season. The woes have been apparent, but so has the potential. So if there is any room for improvement with the players on the roster, my bet is that it shows here for the most winnable SEC game left on Auburn’s schedule. I’m taking Auburn to cover +3.5 and the OVER.
Auburn +4.5, OVER 60.5
Florida (+23.5) vs Georgia (-23.5)
O/U: 56.5
Kick: 3:30pm ET
Location: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL
Broadcast: CBS
Georgia and Florida come out of their bye with their annual neutral site engagement in Jacksonville. Florida has played valiantly, showing effort in every game they’ve played this season. It hasn’t always translated to wins, though, mostly because of a suspect passing game and porous defense. Anthony Richardson is a game changer at QB, but they haven’t been able to consistently get the ball downfield. So it ends up being a rush-heavy plan. And Georgia’s run defense is their strength.
Georgia still looks very good, although not quite like the world beaters they were when they opened the season. They seem to have trouble identifying a reliable target outside of McConkey and Bowers. But having the best TE in the nation as 1 of 2 dependable targets on your team is a problem most teams would love to have. Georgia has also struggled rushing the passer. But that won’t be a significant enough factor to turn the game.
Florida is known to have a big pass play here and there simply off the strength of Anthony Richardson’s brilliance. I think that helps Florida keep this within 23. So I’m taking Florida to cover, but not touching the total.
Florida +23.5
Mizzou (+3.5) vs South Carolina (-3.5)
O/U: 45
Kick: 4:00pm ET
Location: Williams-Brice Stadium
Broadcast: SEC Network
We’re getting into the most interesting part of the season where we know exactly who teams are and we have to figure out how their strengths & weaknesses match up against their opponent. Case & point: Mizzou. Mizzou gets a bad rap as a terrible team, but they literally gave away their W against Auburn and have been holding down points under 30 for every opponent they’ve played since K State in Week 2. Their defense is actually good. Their offense is not.
South Carolina has a respectable record, but no quality wins. Their offense is still piss poor, but if you give it enough opportunities, they’ll make something of it. Their Kickoff return TD to open the game against Texas A&M ended up being the difference in the game, but those are points you can count on all the time. Their fares slightly better, providing some resistance against the pass. But their run defense can give up movement, and that’s what makes this game dicey.
Mizzou has been playing outstanding run defense, and that’s what makes this game interesting. South Carolina can’t put the ball exclusively in Rattler’s hands and ask him to take them to glory, but that’s what Mizzou’s stout run defense will force him to do. It should be a tough, mistake-riddled, low-scoring game that comes down to a FG kick here or there. I like Mizzou to cover, along with the UNDER.
Mizzou +3.5, UNDER 45
Kentucky (+11.5) vs Tennessee (-11.5)
O/U: 62
Kick: 7:00pm ET
Location: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN
Broadcast: ESPN
As much love as Mark Stoop gets, he’d better win a big game here soon while Will Levis is still wearing Kentucky blue. His teams will always be solid defensively, but the offense leaves a lot to be desired. They’re not particularly good passing the ball downfield or pass blocking, and they are just middle of the pack when it comes to moving the ball on the ground. And that plays right into Tennessee’s strength of the defending the run.
Tennessee is the top passing offense in the country, and their potency isn’t up for debate. They put a hurting on Bama, but this Kentucky D is actually the best pass defense they will have faced so far this season. Kentucky dominated pass-happy Miss St and has generally held all other QBs to despicable numbers. But Tennessee’s run game has been clicking as well, finding room to keep defenses off balance from a killer passing game.
The key here is Tennessee’s poor defense against the pass. They rank bottom third of the conference in pass defense, and that will be where Kentucky tries to attack. Will Levis will try to push it downfield and keep the Tennessee defense off balance, then try to stifle the Vol offense once it gets on the field. It’s a situation where they’d have to play perfectly in order to win this game. Tennessee is just too good passing the ball, so it would only be a matter of time before the dam broke and Hooker starts throwing TDs. Can Kentucky score early and keep scoring to stay in this game? I don’t think they’ve got the guns for it. Give me Tennessee to cover.
Tennessee -11.5
Ole Miss (-2.5) vs Texas A&M (+2.5)
O/U: 55
Kick: 7:30pm ET
Location: Kyle Field, College Station, TX
Broadcast: SEC Network
And we’ve come to the best part of the weekend. Where Jimbo Fisher catches yet another loss and goes to 3-5 on his way to a 5-7 season. This is where I will be directing my hate for the evening, putting every once of energy I have left this evening toward making sure Ole Miss takes A&M down.
If we’re talking metrics, A&M can only move the ball on the ground, and Ole Miss’s defense will definitely allow for some movement on the ground. That is essentially how this game can stay close. The problem for A&M is that Ole Miss is even better on the ground than they are, and A&M is worse at defending the run than A&M is.
When both teams have the same strengths and weaknesses but to an exaggerated degree, it’s an easy pick. The wheels are actively falling off for Texas A&M, so let’s just sit back and watch the show. Give me Ole Miss to cover and send the Texas A&M into full frenzy mode.
Ole Miss -2.5
So that’s the betting weekend. Which picks do you like? Love? Hate? Let me know in the comments below, and check back for the picks as the betting weekend progresses. Most importantly, just sit back and enjoy the games. Week 9 is underway!
Catch more betting conversation with B Wil on The War Rapport’s Twitter Account.
Related
