So we had ourselves a winning week last week. Felt good to get off the losing streak.
Ole Miss and Kentucky are exactly who we thought they were, Arkansas is definitely not as good as they were last season, and Bama might not be as vulnerable as their Week 2 game against Texas made them look.
Let’s tally up the record and see where we stand:
Kentucky +6 ✔
Kentucky vs Ole Miss UNDER 54.5 ✔
Arkansas +17 ❌
Miss St -4 ✔
Georgia -29.5 ❌
Week 5: 3-2; Overall 19-24-3
I had faith that Auburn would cover for the first half of the LSU game, but left that one in my personal ledger. Georgia is really becoming a mystery with their recent performance though.
Arkansas (+9) vs Mississippi St (-9)
O/U: 55
Kick: 12:00pm ET
Location: Davis-Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS
Broadcast: SEC Network
Miss St doused ole A&M last week, much to my delight. Their passing game is as potent as ever with Will Rogers running the show, and Arkansas’s defense – which was an area of concerned before last week’s tussle with Bama – looked worse than I thought it was.
Let’s not overthink it. An untalented, undisciplined Arkansas defense against an air raid Miss St passing attack with a marksman calling the shots? Gimme Miss St all day here. I’m taking Miss St -9 and staying away from the points totals.
Miss St -9
Mizzou (+11) vs Florida (-11)
O/U: 54
Kick: 12:00pm ET
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL
Broadcast: ESPNU
So Mizzou fights the hell out of Georgia and leaves Week 5 with much more respect for themselves than they’d had previously. The trouble with those kinds of valiant efforts, though, is that they can often be isolated incidents instead of trending patterns. Did Mizzou just play up for the visiting national champs and expend all their energy? Or are they legitimately better than they were at the start of the year?
Florida lost a crusher to Tennessee two weeks ago, then had one last cupcake opponent before they buckle in for the meat of their schedule. There’s really no way to tell if they’ve made improvements to the passing game, or if that was just a flash in a pan against a more hyped Tennessee team.
If I had to guess, I’d say Mizzou is probably improving and Florida is too. So I’m leaving this one alone. How these teams look in this one will be how I take stock of their value going into the rest of the season. We’re just spectating here.
Pass
Tennessee (-3) vs LSU (+3)
O/U: 64
Kick: 12:00pm ET
Location: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA
Broadcast: ESPN
LSU beat us last week. Well, kinda. Losing the turnover battle -3 kind of has a way of deciding who wins a game. And our turnovers were more unforced errors than not. So where does that leave us with LSU? Their defense is good, but their offense may be more anemic than what Auburn started the season with. And with Jaden Daniels going down to injury last week, I don’t expect them to be able to put up many points in this game.
Tennessee got an all-important home victory over Florida and had their bye week, so they should be well-rested enough to take on the road challenge against LSU. Hendon Hooker has been as good as advertised and there’s no doubt at all about their ability to score points. Except when they played at Pitt. It took overtime and less than 30 points to win that game. Is Tennessee’s magic limited to home?
Well, I’ve been in on Tennessee since the beginning of the year, mostly because the right QB on a team covers transgressions, and Hendon Hooker is the right QB for Tennessee. Arm talent, accuracy, poise. That’s the stuff I want in the knapsack of the QB I’m betting to cover on the road, and that’s why I’m taking Tennessee to cover and the UNDER for this game. LSU can’t really score points and they’re not going to just get railroaded at home either. That LSU defense will fight like hell to keep them in this game.
Tennessee -3, UNDER 64
Auburn (+28) vs Georgia (-28)
O/U: 49.5
Kick: 3:30pm ET
Location: Sanford Stadium
Broadcast: CBS
We know who we (Auburn) are at this point of the season. We’re a good defense with a dynamic but shaky offense that is just as likely to put up points as turn the ball over, and once teams figure out our game plan, we don’t have the collective talent to take us over the hump.
Georgia, on the other hand, has the collective talent. A few injuries and some dropoff from their experienced studs from last year has left them looking susceptible two weeks straight. They gave up 20 points in 2 straight contests after not giving up 20pts total for the first 3 games combined. Their offense seems to be at the root of it, with it stalling out and turning the ball over at a concerning clip, although not quite as bad as Auburn’s clip.
The good thing about this situation is that Auburn showed enough improvement last week to be encouraged and ready to try their learned lessons against the #1 team in the country. There’s no better setup, really. Go on the road against the best and play your best to give yourself a chance to win and turn the momentum of your season.
I think Auburn plays inspired, so I like them to cover for the first half +17. Yes, you can do that. I’m staying away from the points total in case it gets ugly and we can’t keep Georgia contained.
1st Half Auburn +17
Ole Miss (-17) vs Vanderbilt (+17)
O/U: 60
Kick: 4:00pm ET
Location: FirstBank Stadium, Nashville, TN
Broadcast: SEC Network
Ole Miss is not the high-flying, dynamic offense that you’d expect from Lane Kiffin. Jaxson Dart isn’t throwing downfield a bunch, and Ole MIss is instead relying on the run game and defense to win games. That means a shortened game against Vanderbilt, which favors the under.
And when a team is running well enough to rely on it, it means they’ll likely be dominating physical along their offensive line. Against a Vandy defense that’s short on talent, I expect that to mean an easy Ole Miss win for Lane & Co, so I’m taking Ole Miss to cover saving my skepticism for another week.
Ole Miss -17
South Carolina (+6) vs Kentucky (-6)
O/U: 46
Kick: 7:30pm ET
Location: Kroger Field, Lexington, KY
Broadcast: SEC Network
Spencer Rattler ain’t it. And consequently, South Carolina ain’t it. They’ll fight like hell though, and that might be all they need to cover against a Kentucky team that has a propensity to leave people in the game longer than they should be with turnovers and miscues. A sharp day from South Carolina and a typical day from Kentucky could make for an interesting cover for South Carolina.
Unfortunately, I couldn’t tell you what Kentucky is going to be on a week-to-week basis. The same goes for South Carolina and their offense that only looks great against subpar opponents. I’m tilting toward Kentucky, though, because coming off a tough road loss and then playing back at home tends to motivate a team still in the hunt for their season goals, and Kentucky is very much that. Not touching the points total. I can trust Kentucky’s effort, but not their offenses.
Kentucky -6
Texas A&M (+24) vs Alabama (-24)
O/U: 48
Kick: 8:00pm ET
Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium
Broadcast: CBS
Texas A&M is reeling, much to my delight. They’re even worse than I expected this season, and a change in QB didn’t really fix their offensive woes. Now the better guy is hurt and they’re back to Haynes King, who looked terrible to start the season. And they get to take this clown show to Bama.
Bama rolled over Arkansas with and without Bryce Young after his 2nd qtr injury. And this Bama defense got embarrassed with their OT loss to A&M last season, meaning they’re going to want some get-back in the worst way. This is going to be a blowout. 1st half, 2nd half, whole game. Taking Bama to cover.
Bama -24
So that’s the betting weekend. Which picks do you like? Love? Hate? Let me know in the comments below, and check back for the picks as the betting weekend progresses. Most importantly, just sit back and enjoy the games. Week 6 is underway!
Catch more betting conversation with B Wil on The War Rapport’s Twitter Account.
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