Last week was a weird one, with unusual games happening all over college football. Texas lost to Texas Tech, Miami got blasted at home by Middle Tenn St, and Oklahoma lost to Kansas St for the 2nd straight year – this year at home – under a different coaching staff.
At home in the SEC, things were equally as strange. Georgia gave up more points at home against Kent St than they had surrendered in their first 3 games combined. Who had that one on their score card?
Tennessee had their 11pt cover all wrapped up before giving up a garbage time TD to Florida with 17 seconds left on the clock. So deflating when a push would have certainly been preferable to a loss. And Ole Miss’s performance against Tulsa left me genuinely bewildered. 35 1st half points, but no points in the 2nd half? What is going on?
Georgia -45 ❌
Tennessee -11 ❌
Ole Miss -21 ❌
Ole Miss vs Tulsa UNDER 65.5 ❌
Northern Kentucky vs Kentucky UNDER 54 ➖
Arkansas +2 ➖
South Carolina -23.5 ✔
LSU -31 ✔
LSU vs New Mexico OVER 45 ❌
Week 4: 2-5-2; Overall 16-22-3
The safest bets of last week were the ones that I refused to take, and that was Bama over Vandy by -41 and just not betting Auburn. Yes, Bama covered easily, but I just don’t want to believe in them after see that performance against Texas. Vandy still is who we thought they were, though, so we’re going to remember that until they play Mizzou or South Carolina.
We’re still fighting to get to .500. Let’s start making some moves.
Kentucky (+6.5) vs Ole Miss (-6.5)
O/U: 54.5
Kick: 12:00pm ET
Location: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, MS
Broadcast: ESPN
Ole Miss’s schedule so far has been pretty soft. What we do know about them is that they are primarily a rushing team. Whether or not that’s by default because the QBs are trustworthy enough or by design? Can’t be sure yet.
What we can be certain of is that Kentucky’s defense is pretty legit, giving up less than 300 total yards per game and allowing less than 25% conversion rate to opposing offenses on 3rd down. That’s a recipe for success, especially against a rushing team like Ole Miss. They’ve been road tested early in the swamp, where they held up swimmingly mostly due to said defense.
I will most definitely be taking the Under and the points on Kentucky to cover. Ole Miss may be legit, but without a passing offense to keep a stout Kentucky defense off balance, I think this ends up being a dog fight that is decided by less than a TD, so I’m taking Kentucky to cover.
Kentucky +6.5, UNDER 54.5
Alabama (-17) vs Arkansas (+17)
O/U: 61
Kick: 3:30pm ET
Location: Donald W Reynolds Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, AR
Broadcast: CBS
Besides fumbling away from cover and dealing the Jimothy Fisher administration a heavy blow, Arkansas has plenty of things looking up for them this year. KJ Jefferson is as effective a QB as they’ve ever had and they’ve got real threats in both the run game and the passing game. Their defense leaves a lot to be desired, which is essentially the same case as last year.
Bama looks to be fixing their woes after a mediocre showing in Austin, TX earlier this season, but they’ve only had subpar competition since. Are they really any better? Can their defense be trusted to contain good offenses? Arkansas will be their first true SEC test of the season, and Arkansas gave them hell last year in Tuscaloosa. A year better with the same staff and QB should provide some interesting results, especially after the biting loss against A&M last week.
To be brief, Bama may be every bit as good as we expect, but they aren’t the same team on the road against a quality opponent. Since Arkansas qualifies as just that, I’m taking Arkansas +17 and crossing my fingers for an outright victory.
Arkansas +17
Texas A&M (+4) vs Miss St (-4)
O/U: 45
Kick: 4:00pm ET
Location: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS
Broadcast: SEC Network
This one is strange because A&M just won a game by scoring only 23 points. On top of that, they lost their most experienced receiver Ainias Smith for the season with a leg/ankle injury. Max Johnson looked better in his 2nd straight start, but not so good that his offense could muster more than 16 offensive points against a mediocre Arkansas defense.
Miss St comes in with a strong win over Bowling Green after self-imploding against LSU the week before. Will Rogers is going to be good, but they lack the talent to dominate outside of the function of their offensive system and it shows. Similarly, their defense isn’t great in the middle, and getting them moving side-to-side with a good run game is going to yield good results if an offense can manage it.
In this case, this is a classic coin toss of a game. The points should be low considering their a Jimothy team, and Miss St should be able to get something going early at least to force A&M to have to score points to keep up. If that happens, Miss St should be able to control this game. I like Miss St to cover, but I’m staying away from the points. If this does go Miss St’s way, it could be more points than we’re expecting.
Miss St -4
LSU (-8) vs Auburn (+8)
O/U: 45
Kick: 7:00pm ET
Location: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL
Broadcast: ESPN
At this point, it would be foolish to bet in Auburn’s favor. They’ve let us down multiple times this season already and we’ve got no evidence they will turn it around. The defense looked better last week, but that was against Mizzou. The offense looked terrible, and that was against Mizzou.
LSU, on the other hand, looks to be getting things together, with Jaden Daniel finding more of a rhythm in the offense then he had in their season opening loss to Florida St. It’s been the LSU defense, though, that is impressing so far. They’ve looked stout against the run and even shut down Miss St’s air raid offense in the 2nd half to secure a comeback victory at home.
With whispers of big changes coming to both the offensive scheme and the offensive line personnel, I have no idea what to expect from Auburn. They could be much improved and ready for the moment, or wet the bed. It hurts to think about my team wetting the bed so many weeks in a row, so I’m just going to avoid this game altogether. I don’t need the weight of an Auburn loss AND the risk of losing money joining forces on my psyche today.
Pass
Georgia (-29.5) vs Mizzou (+29.5)
O/U: 54.5
Kick: 7:30pm ET
Location: Memorial Stadium, Columbia, MO
Broadcast: SEC Network
If Georgia was my spouse, they’d have been sleeping on the sofa for the last 6 days. They seriously let me down with their puzzling performance against Kent St last week. No explanations, really. Total domination is reasonable to expect from a football team with this kind of talent, continuity, and experience. They did not dominate.
Mizzou is not a good football team. I saw them give an equally bad football team a victory last weekend at Auburn. So I know from experience that they will not put up much of a fight. Combining that with the focus Georgia is sure to come out with after underperforming last week, and I think this one gets ugly. Georgia usually manhandles Mizzou anyway, so a full cover should be easy to get here. Staying away from the points though. Earn my trust back, Georgia.
Georgia -29.5
So that’s the betting weekend. Which picks do you like? Love? Hate? Let me know in the comments below, and check back for the picks as the betting weekend progresses. Most importantly, just sit back and enjoy the games. Week 5 is underway!
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