Week 7 wasn’t great considering we rode with Florida and Miss St to cover their games and they ended up getting schmoked. But the joy of having Bama lose in heartbreaking fashion was a delicious consolation prize that we quite enjoyed. Teams may have bucked their trends in more ways than one, but we’re glad Bama is exactly who we expected them to be.
Week 7:
Tennessee +9 ✔
Georgia -37.5 ✔
BYU -1 ❌
Florida -2.5 ❌
LSU vs Florida UNDER 50.5 ❌
Miss St -3.5 ❌
Week 7: 2-4
Overall 26-30-3
Ole Miss (+1) vs LSU (-1)
O/U: 64.5
Kick: 3:30pm ET
Location: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA
Broadcast: CBS
LSU surprised the hell out of me last weekend with their eruption of offense after getting molly-whopped at home by Tennessee. I don’t know one prognosticator who saw that much offense happening in that game. The problem with that game is how to incorporate it into my assessment of LSU this season, because it’s such an outlier that it doesn’t make sense. We gave room to the possibility that shenanigans were possible in the LSU/Florida matchup, and going on the road to score more points against Florida in the swamp than you did at home against New Mexico certainly sounds like shenanigans.
For Ole Miss, we got a good look at them last week when they play our Auburn team. They are ok. Outside of our offense gifting them 7 points (and the refs making sure to throw in 7 for good measure on a phantom PI call), it was an extremely even matchup. And I don’t think you can be considered an elite team when you’re playing neck & neck with the worst Auburn team in 10 years.
LSU should win this game. They’ve already gotten the monkey off their backs of having lost embarrassingly, then put it back together. This will be the best team Ole Miss has played all season and they won’t make it out of Baton Rouge unscathed. Give me LSU to cover and the OVER. Ole Miss has given up points in bunches to the likes of Auburn and Vandy. No reason to think they’ll keep the total low here.
LSU -1, OVER 64.5
Vanderbilt (+14) vs Mizzou (-14)
O/U: 50
Kick: 4:00pm ET
Location: Memorial Stadium, Columbia, MO
Broadcast: SEC Network
This is officially the “bottom of the barrel” bowl. The “worst of the worst” bowl. These are the two worst teams in the conference by virtue of neither of them having an SEC win. Both have looked mostly bad, but Mizzou has shown some life of late. One possession losses to both Georgia and Florida show that they’ve got life and they’re still fighting like hell for this coach.
Vandy got their 3rd win of the season with a non-conference win over Northern Illinois, and it’s been all downhill since. They are definitely the Commodores you remember, and there’s no reason to be disillusioned that they’re anything more than that.
The biggest difference here is that they are coming off of a 55-0 shellacking at the hands of Georgia, while Mizzou is coming off of a bye week. Mizzou’s run defense has stiffened up, and Vandy’s primary method of yardage (in impact, not quantity) is the run. This is set up perfectly to be Mizzou’s first SEC win, and we’ll take it with along with the cover.
Mizzou -14
Miss St (+21.5) vs Alabama (-21.5)
O/U: 61
Kick: 7:00pm ET
Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
Broadcast: ESPN
Bama coming off a loss is bad news for their next opponent. Worse news for said opponent is that Bryce Young is actually healthy enough to play. He looked otherworldly in Bama’s loss to Tennessee, and that means any other opponents without the firepower to match points with Bama are going to get run over.
Miss St has Will Rogers, sure. And we’re big fans of his efficiency and accuracy. But the offense hasn’t been able to match its 2021 potency. Partially because defenses are keen to what Miss St is doing, sure. But also because Miss St can’t pass downfield at all. Will Rogers is averaging less than 10yds per completion. And when their offense can’t get going, they’re losing time of possession. Kentucky possessed the ball for 39min in their win over Miss St last week.
Combine those factors with Bama’s running proficiency, and it’s a scary recipe for a bludgeoning in Tuscaloosa. Rogers can’t push it downfield this year, and that would have been Bama’s weakness. Without that ability, it’s going to be ugly today. Gimme Bama to cover and that’s it. If I were taking a guess, I’d take the over on points. But I’m staying away for now.
Alabama -21.5
Texas A&M (-3) vs South Carolina (+3)
O/U: 45
Kick: 7:30pm ET
Location: Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, SC
Broadcast: SEC Network
Texas A&M finished its first half of the season with a loss. Just the way I like it. They aren’t great in any part of the game, and their 3-3 results so far illustrate that. They can’t really stop the run can’t really pass well, and South Carolina’s had some success moving the ball on the ground. Both teams have what are probably liabilities at QB, although Spencer Rattler has more of a green light.
South Carolina has had a slew of injuries this season, though, that help explain exactly why they are as bad as they’ve been. Spencer Rattler has thrown 3 more INTs than TDs this season (heh) and Haynes King hasn’t shown anything worth fearing in the passing game. In fact, South Carolina’s pass rush and pass defense rank a few slots higher than A&M’s pass blocking and pass offense, respectively.
If Vandy vs Mizzou is the bottom-of-the-barrel bowl, this is the battle for the king of the SEC cellar. The best bad team in the SEC could be crowned here today. With both teams being so inconsistent, it’s hard to make any objective determination about what to expect. So I’m going with my hate. Jimbo will lose this game as South Carolina takes its faux 2-week bye and recalibrates for a strong finish to the 2022 season. I like South Carolina to cover and win outright.
South Carolina +3
So that’s the betting weekend. Which picks do you like? Love? Hate? Let me know in the comments below, and check back for the picks as the betting weekend progresses. Most importantly, just sit back and enjoy the games. Week 7 is underway!
Catch more betting conversation with B Wil on The War Rapport’s Twitter Account.