Not a bad week overall. We missed some gimmes that I had a good feeling about but were scared to pull the trigger on (South Carolina -12.5, LSU vs Florida St UNDER 50) but our prudence was rewarded more often than it wasn’t. We’ve got to keep an eye on Ole Miss going forward though. That QB battle doesn’t look settled and the offense doesn’t look fluid yet.
Here’s how last week shook out:
Georgia -17 ✔
Georgia vs Oregon UNDER 54.5 ✔
Arkansas -6.5 ✔
Cincy vs Arkansas OVER 53.5 ✔
Ole Miss -21 ❌
Utah -3 ❌
Kentucky -15 ✔
Georgia St vs South Carolina UNDER 55.0 ✔
Alabama 1st Half -27.5 ✔
LSU -3 ❌
Week 1: 7-3; Overall 7-3
We did our best to warn you about betting FBS vs FCS games early in the season. With Texas A&M (-36.5), Vanderbilt (-19.5), and our hometown Auburn Tigers (-32.5) all taking on FCS opponents in week 1, none of them covered their respective spreads. Did you take our advice? Hopefully you did.
It’s just too dicey to bet on early season games vs FCS foes when coaches like to use them as scrimmages to continue to evaluate their team after fall camp. Or as our good friend and Auburn Observer writer & editor Justin Ferguson so eloquently stated on Twitter last weekend:
although if you bet on an FBS vs. FCS game, bless your degenerate heart
— Justin Ferguson (@JFergusonAU) September 4, 2022
All things considered, it was a pretty good start to the season. We’ll try to keep things going this week:
Wake Forest (-13.5) vs Vanderbilt (+13.5)
O/U: 65
Kick: 12:00pm ET
Location: FirstBank Stadium, Nashville, TN
Broadcast: SEC Network
Vandy looked impressive in their week 0 win over Hawaii, then just barely looked passable in their week 1 win over FCS Elon. This week we find out if Vandy is really any good or if Hawaii is just the absolute worst team in the FBS. Their 32-point home loss to Western Kentucky may be an answer to our question, but we’ll hold off judgement for now.
Wake Forest gets their QB Sam Hartman back for the first game this year after the announcement that he’d be out indefinitely with a non-football related medical issue. He’ll be playing, albeit with no fall camp or game reps under his belt this year. So there’s reason to believe he might be a little rusty. But there’s no reason to believe that we know who Vandy is after just 2 games this season. This game will serve as the litmus for our judgement of them going forward, so let’s just watch the game and see how they do. No way I’m laying money down here.
Pass
Alabama (-21.5) vs Texas (+21.5)
O/U: 64.0
Kick: 12:00pm ET
Location: Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX
Broadcast: FOX
In a very rare true-road out-of-conference game, Nick Saban takes Bama to Texas to take on his former assistant Steve Sarkisian and a couple of former tide players as well. Texas wiped up LA Monroe in Week 1, and Bama throttled Utah St. If you take a closer look at the stats, though, it wasn’t quite the same level of domination.
Texas struggled early offensively and didn’t really get into a rhythm until the 2nd qtr. a blocked punt and an interception return also added to their point total of 59, so the performance wasn’t quite as impressive as the final score might indicate. You can’t count on blocked punts and Pick 6’s against the better competition, and the team they’ve got visiting this weekend is the BEST competition.
Instead of overthinking this and letting the “Texas is back!” crowd influence my thinking, I’m going to go with what I know and just pick Bama to cover the spread.
Alabama -21, Over 64.5
South Carolina (+9) vs Arkansas (-9)
O/U: 56
Kick: 12:00pm ET
Location: Donald W Reynolds Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, AR
Broadcast: ESPN
So Spencer Rattler comes to South Carolina and then gets everybody excited, then starts his first game throwing for less than 250 yards with 1TD and 2 INTs. His completion percentage was decent, but he looks like the same guy: some high, some lows, but not consistent enough to count on.
Then there’s Arkansas who looked competent in their season opener against Cincy, but not unbeatable. KJ Jefferson isn’t close to being Cam Newton, no matter how much the media wants to keep that narrative alive. But Arkansas seems to have the right mix of grit and talent, and that’s enough to cover the spread, right?
The problem here is that we don’t yet know which of these teams have the more prevalent weakness. It may be in Arkansas’s secondary or receiver core, or it may be with Spencer Rattler tendency to make a bad decision with the football. Though the overall talent level of these teams is similar, Arkansas seems to have the upper hand at QB because theirs can run somebody over and throws fewer INTs.
But I still don’t trust the spread. Spencer Rattler could absolutely give this game away with his turnovers, but Arkansas isn’t a complete enough team to put anybody away handily if they don’t have the talent advantage. I’m begrudgingly going with South Carolina to cover and the under on the points.
South Carolina +9, Under 56
Mizzou (+7) vs K State (-7)
O/U: 53.0
Kick: 12:00pm ET
Location: Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium, Manhattan, KS
Broadcast: ESPN2
I’ve been down on Mizzou ever since they cost me money last year on a few pitiful performances. They turned over plenty of that roster and came out looking like a different defense against La Tech. But it’s only been a year, and I really can’t get the sting of disappointment out of my mind.
K State doesn’t seem to be too much more reliable, in all honesty. Nebraska transfer Adrian Martinez is just ok, and K State has an OK roster, but nothing to write home about. Without much detailed info on K State and who they were, I’m lukewarm on them as a team to only be 21-16 over the last 3 years.
I think these are two relatively evenly matched teams who have a lot to prove to match their fanbases optimistic expectations. This will be a turning point for sure, but I certainly don’t expect Mizzou to get blown out. Give me Mizzou to cover but I’m not touching the total here.
Mizzou +7
App St (+18) vs Texas A&M (-18)
O/U: 54
Kick: 3:30pm ET
Location: Kyle Field, College Station, TX
Broadcast: ESPN2
Haynes King didn’t look like the 2nd coming in his first start in a year since injuring his leg early last season. It’s ok, though, he’s got a fiery defense to back him up this season. He’s got exactly one game to start looking legitimate before Miami comes to town to test his and A&M’s mettle.
App St played admirably against a UNC defense that allowed 61 points to them. This A&M defense won’t give up close to that. But App St does have athletes and a usually potent running game, so it’s not outrageous to think they could make things interesting for a quarter or two. If Haynes King looks as pedestrian as he did early in their opening game against Sam Houston. App St has a chance to make this team sweat.
If I had to guess, though (and I am absolutely guessing here) App St will score 17 points while Texas A&M finds their footing and eventually pulls away lot due to some timely defensive stops and hard-nosed running to win 34-17. With absolute no confidence, I’m making a petty pick against Jimothy’s Aggies and taking App St +18. I’m staying away from the total though.
App St +18
Tennessee (-5) vs Pitt (+5)
O/U: 62.5
Kick: 3:30pm ET
Location: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
Broadcast: ABC
I was pleasantly surprised to see the spread on this game move a full 2 points from where it was introduced. There’s no way anybody think Pitt is a better team than they were last year with all their losses. Now take into account that Tennessee is a completely different team with Hendon Hooker at QB, and there’s your 2nd reason to favor the Vols. Add in the revenge factor, and it’s mathematic.
It’s not that Pitt can’t be a good team still, it’s that they barely won this game as the better team last year while Tennessee started the game with a QB who shouldn’t even be on an SEC roster in Joe Milton. These teams have moved different directions last year, and I expect it to show in this matchup. Vols to cover -5 and the over. I expect Tennessee to try and pour it on, and Pitt will try their best to match. A 38-31 game isn’t unfeasible.
Tennessee -5, OVER 62.5
Kentucky (+6) vs Florida -6
O/U: 51.5
Kick: 7:00pm ET
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL
Broadcast: ESPN
This is a very intriguing early season matchup. Kentucky got a warm-up game, but Florida did not. Kentucky looked just ok, but Florida flashed something special with Anthony Richardson at QB and some early synergy between players and new head coach Billy Napier.
Kentucky is missing the lynch pin of their offense, Chris Rodriguez. That loss doesn’t show up against Miami (OH), but against a Florida team at home with just a little bit of mojo going? Kentucky will need everything they have to win this game, and I’m worried they won’t have enough.
That doesn’t mean they can’t cover, though. But will they? I’m honestly stumped here. I could see a staunch Kentucky defense giving Richardson fits and frustrating him into some turnovers. I could also see Will Levis looking pedestrian without his RB1 and without a big play receiver to turn to. Both these defenses should be fired up though, and neither team has a strong passing game, so this should be a low scoring affair. For that reason, I’m skipping the spread and taking the Under
UNDER 51.5
San Jose St (+24) vs Auburn (-24)
O/U: 48.5
Kick: 7:30pm ET
Location: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL
Broadcast: ESPNU
I’ve got a rule against betting the home team. I usually don’t advocate for it. It’s usually too difficult to be objective when you’re betting on your own team. You can envision all of the good things happening and couldn’t fathom the players you’ve spent months or even a few years getting to know messing up or folding in a big moment.
But it happens.
This is a situation where we stayed away from Auburn last week (no FBS vs FCS opponents, remember?) and we were right to do so. The 2 QB system is going to yield some uneven results and both guys are still getting their feet underneath them. The blessing this week is that they’ve had a week to work out some kinks and now there’s more of a QB battle than there was a month ago. Both guys will have something to prove, and offense should be plentiful.
A little advance scouting on SJSU tells us that there’s not much to worry about from them on offense. They have a scrambling QB who can make plays, but Mercer’s offense was more capable overall. Plus, Harsin specifically challenged the secondary to be better competing for passing in the air.
This is academic to me. The team takes Week 1 to figure out the kinks, Week 2 to apply the lessons to the backside of an overmatched opponent. I’m taking Auburn -24 and the OVER. Auburn scores that 49 points single-handedly today.
Auburn -24, OVER 48.5
Miss St (-11) vs Arizona (+11)
O/U: 58.0
Kick: 11:00pm ET
Location: Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ
Broadcast: Fox Sports 1
Will Rogers is still Will Rogers, and Mike Leach’s offense is still Mike Leach’s offense.
Glad we got that out of the way.
This is a case where I don’t want to overthink things here. However much improved Arizona might be after a few years in the doldrums of the Pac-12, they aren’t equipped to handle a Miss St team with more continuity and talent than any that Mike Leach fielded in his Wash St days.
Will Rodgers is special, Miss St is ready, and that 10pm local time won’t bother them as much as Arizona fans are hoping it will. I like Miss St with the cover here. Betting on Arizona to do good things in football just doesn’t feel right.
Miss St -11
So that’s the betting weekend. Which picks do you like? Love? Hate? Let me know in the comments below, and check back for the picks as the betting weekend progresses. Most importantly, just sit back and enjoy the games. Week 2 is underway!
Catch more betting conversation with B Wil on The War Rapport’s Twitter Account.
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