For the 3rd week straight, we were 1 win (and 1 LSU point) away from a perfect week. Sucks not to hit on everything. But we have officially hit our zone and are inching closer to 60%! Those are pro gambler numbers. Maybe I should make a career of it? 🤔
Week 11:
Tennessee -19.5 ✔
LSU -3.5 ❌
Ole Miss +10.5 ✔
Bama vs Ole Miss UNDER 64.5 ✔
Florida -8 ✔
Georgia -16.5 ✔
Auburn -1.5 ✔
Week 11: 6-1
Overall: 47-34-3
Florida (-14) vs Vanderbilt (+14)
O/U: 57.5
Kick: 12:00pm ET
Location: FirstBank Stadium, Nashville, TN
Broadcast: SEC Network
I was careful enough not to bet on Kentucky last week, but not brave enough to pick Vandy outright. I’ll take money saved over money lost. A pass is always more prudent than an outright loss. But that game begs the question, “Is Vandy good enough to cover this week?”
No.
As inspiring as that victory may have been for Vandy, the truth is that it says much more about the Kentucky offense than it does the Vanderbilt defense or offense. Which is why I’m going with Florida to cover here. Florida is not the uninspired offense that Kentucky is. Their defense is porous enough to allow Vandy to score points, but the truth is that Anthony Richardson is the offense and he’s outstanding. Vandy’s defense isn’t good enough to contain him consistently, and Vandy’s offense will have just enough miscues to keep Vandy from staying pace with Florida.
Florida covers, but we’re not touching the points here.
Florida -14
UMass (+32.5) vs Texas A&M (-32.5)
O/U: 46.5
Kick: 12:00pm ET
Location: Kyle Field, College Station, TX
Broadcast: ESPN+
Ordinarily this would be a game where you pick the better team to cover, no matter the spread. UMass is a perennial punching bag for teams all across FBS, and even some FCS teams. The problem is, I have no idea who Texas A&M is right now. The talent is there, but the coach is terrible. Stars are sitting, the QB is still unexperienced (though he’s shown some promise) and this line is far too wide.
One part of me thinks that Texas A&M comes out and bullies the first bully-able team they’ve played since September, and proceeds to run it up. Another part of me thinks they play it safe and try to get the true freshman QB some scrimmage type reps while letting their defense feast, which would keep the score low.
A spread would be certain in the former scenario, but more dicey in the latter. A 35-3 or 38-7 score sounds plenty feasible, but neither is a cover, so I’m staying away from this one.
PASS
Georgia (-22.5) vs Kentucky (+22.5)
O/U: 47
Kick: 3:30pm ET
Location: Kroger Field, Lexington, KY
Broadcast: CBS
Kentucky is simply not polished enough of an offensive team to move the ball consistently or put teams away, and it’s been a problem for them since Will Levis and then-new OC Rich Scangarello came to the team in 2021. They’ve got something, but they don’t have the fluidity of an offense where the philosophy and personnel mesh together in unison. That reasoning is what had me skittish on them last week and what has me skittish on them today.
The embarrassment of last weekend, combined with Georgia having already clenched the SEC East makes this an interesting spread. Does Kentucky play their hearts out to redeem themselves and give a valiant effort, a la Mizzou vs Georgia earlier this year? Or do the Dawgs chow down on the Wildcats a la Georgai vs Tennessee?
One thing I do think is certain, this Kentucky defense will keep the game low scoring. We know the Kentucky offense will do that too (heh) but Kentucky really likes to muck things up for opposing offenses. They need to because their offense struggles mightily to put up points, with them being a terrible red zone offense this year. The points won’t come from Kentucky’s side, but I’m willing to be that they won’t come in boat loads from Georgia’s offense either. I expect this to be a slugfest with Georgia winning by 14-17 points. Not quite the spread that’s listed.
But I’m not willing to put my money on Kentucky to cover. They could absolutely blow this game with turnovers. Instead, I’m betting on some red zone stops, Kentucky turnovers, and field goals to keep the score under 49. Oh, and good ole Kirby will get conservative once he’s up and get his team out of there as healthy as possible for their eventual SEC Championship matchup with LSU. Lots of safe calls and running the ball keeps the points under 47.
UNDER 47
Western Kentucky (+4.5) vs Auburn (-4.5)
O/U: 54
Kick: 4:00pm ET
Location: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL
Broadcast: SEC Network
I didn’t look up the stats for this game. I don’t need to. I know who Auburn is. I know that Western Kentucky can put up points with a potent passing offense. Auburn’s defensive metric for the season would say that this is a game to be worried about. A void of discipline and poor tackling at linebacker left our Tigers exposed to run-heavy teams most of the year, and a subpar pass rush left us vulnerable to good QBs completing lots of passes early.
Fortunately for us, this isn’t the same defense.
Auburn’s secondary has been phenomenal all season long. And it’s only gotten better and deeper since Interim HC Cadillac Williams has put more guys on the field since he’s taken over. That’s also been the case at linebacker and defensive line, which means that a hungry, salty Auburn defense will be unlocked yet again in front of a raucous Jordan-Hare crowd for what is to be Senior Day for several key Auburn players.
Long Story short: Auburn isn’t going to lose this game. Neither this defense nor the home crowd will let them. It’s hard to guarantee the cover, but I’m going with it anyway. A physical Auburn defense imposes their will and holds down a potent Western Kentucky offense and keeps the points under 54.
Auburn -4.5
UNDER 54
That covers today’s action through the 4:00pm ET start times. Check back for an update on the rest of the day’s SEC betting action around 2pm ET.
Catch more betting conversation with B Wil on B Wil’s Twitter Account.