Another 1-loss weekend has us sitting pretty for the season with only 3 weeks left to go. Can we get to 60%? I like our chances.
Week 10:
Kentucky vs Mizzou UNDER 40 ✔
Tennessee +8.5 ❌
Liberty +14.5 ✔
LSU +13 ✔
South Carolina -6.5 ✔
Auburn +12.5 ✔
Week 10: 5-1
Overall: 41-33-3
Mizzou (+19.5) vs Tennessee (-19.5)
O/U: 56.5
Kick: 12:00pm ET
Location: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN
Broadcast: CBS
Tennessee got embarrassed against Georgia last week, and I expect that will be a motivating factor for them this week as they look to bounce back. This matchup against Mizzou isn’t a gimme though, as those Tigers have executed one of the most remarkable defensive turnarounds that I’ve ever witnessed. Their defense is legit, but their offense is putrid. That leaves them struggling to score points far too often, and this Tennessee offense isn’t one that’s going to get held down for 4 quarters like they were against Georgia last week.
If Mizzou was meeting an undefeated Tennessee at home in Columbia, they’d stand a much better chance here. But I don’t think a team that was embarrassed like they were last week will hold back anything. Give me Tennessee to cover by 3 TDs.
Tennessee -19.5
Kentucky (-17) vs Vandy (+17)
O/U: 46
Kick: 12:00pm ET
Location: Kroger Field, Lexington, KY
Broadcast: SEC Network
Kentucky has consistently been a good defense/mediocre offense team this season. Will Levis has not looked like the QB prospect to cure offensive ills the way that true elite QBs can be, especially since his defense is going to give him plenty of chances to do it.
Vandy offers little to no resistance at this point of the season, and that should result in a Kentucky cover. But Kentucky is notorious for turning the ball over at the most inopportune times, in addition to getting bogged down in the redzone. So this game is still quite literally a gamble. Too much of a gamble means this one is a strong pass. Let’s not chance Kentucky disappointing us this weekend. This is a pass.
PASS
LSU (-3.5) vs Arkansas (+3.5)
O/U: 65
Kick: 12:00pm ET
Location: Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, AR
Broadcast: ESPN
LSU surprised people last week by beating Bama. Myself and Ike weren’t so surprised, as we called that upset in the middle of last week. The main reason? Jayden Daniels is playing responsibly at QB, and LSU is playing a disciplined brand of football. After their win over Bama they’re firmly in control of the SEC West so there’s plenty at stake here. On a collision course with Georgia, they can’t afford to drop the ball and give Bama any life.
Some prognosticators like Arkansas here, citing (1) LSU’s big win over Bama leaving room for a letdown, (2) Arkansas being at home and motivated after an embarrassing loss, and (3) Arkansas’s rush offense should be a handful for LSU’s rush defense. Personally, only reason 3 is relevant here, as I don’t think that this LSU team is the emotional team who had to play outside of themselves to beat Bama. The confidence boost from the win is there, but this LSU team has been getting consistently better since they lost to Tennessee. How they played last week against Bama is just who they are now. Also, their can certainly be some motivation for a home team after suffering an embarrassing loss, but only if it’s an exception. Arkansas has had a few bad losses this season, so that “bounce back boost” button is all used up. They are who they are.
Knowing that, I love LSU -3 here. The line has been moved up by all the bettors who agree, but I still like LSU -3.5 too. So that’s where I’m sitting.
LSU -3.5
Alabama (-10.5) vs Ole Miss (+10.5)
O/U: 64.5
Kick: 3:30pm ET
Location: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, MS
Broadcast: CBS
This is the one everybody has been waiting on. The annual “Disgruntled Bowl” (boss or employee, it still works). Bama is licking their wounds and Ole miss is coming off of a bye, which should definitely help them. Yes, Bama looks vulnerable, but Ole Miss isn’t really good, remember?
I figured people would have recognized Ole Miss’s mediocrity after their game against Kentucky (two very overhyped teams in that matchup) but it wasn’t until their loss to LSU that everybody saw the jig rising. Bama can certainly be beaten with a quality passing game, but Ole Miss doesn’t really have that. Bama’s front 7 is good against the run, and Ole Miss is primarily a running team. This matchup should bode well for Bama.
But coming off a bye, there’s plenty that Lane & Co could install to surprise this Bama defense. And that’s what gives me pause making this pick. Bama’s offensive line still isn’t great, and pressure can be applied to hold down Bama’s offense for yet another competitive road game, which has happened twice so far this season.
I’m going to go with my gut here and say that Bama struggles to pull away from Ole Miss completely. Lane & Co cover, but won’t win outright. And since I like both defenses to present some problems, give me the Under too.
Ole Miss +10.5
UNDER 64.5
That covers today’s action through the 3:30pm ET start times. Check back for an update on the rest of the day’s SEC betting action around 1pm ET.
Updated 2:09pm ET
South Carolina (+8) vs Florida (-8)
O/U: 58
Kick: 4:00pm ET
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL
Broadcast: SEC Network
Florida might not have a double digit win season, but with a QB like Anthony Richardson, they aren’t going to be wanting for excitement. They went on the road to beat a reeling Texas A&M squad (heh) who at one point could count on their defense. But not for that game. Richardson and the Gators put up more than 42 points, a sign that they would at least be competitive for the rest of their season.
South Carolina put away Vandy handily after a disappointing home loss to Mizzou. South Carolina still isn’t good, but they can take advantage if they’re playing a team with significant deficiencies. Florida has plenty of those on defense, so this game isn’t a gimme for the Gators. South Carolina could challenge early with a couple of scripted drives to put the Gator defense on its heels.
The problem is that Florida can do the same to a soft South Carolina pass defense. And since I also don’t believe in South Carolina’s QB, I’m going to go with the Gators here. I think Florida covers narrowly. Not touching the total since I can’t count on South Carolina to score AND I can’t count on either defense to shut down the other.
Florida -8
Georgia (-16.5) vs Mississippi St (+16.5)
O/U: 52.5
Kick: 7:00pm ET
Location: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS
Broadcast: ESPN2
Domination. Utter domination. That’s what we saw from this Georgia defense the last time they were on the field. They completely shut down the best scoring offense in the country, and just 1 week after losing their best linebacker, no less. Georgia is rounding into form on defense, and that’s scary for everybody else.
Enter everybody else: Mississippi State. After beating a motivated but flawed Auburn team in OT (who stifled them pretty consistently in the 2nd half) they get to look the best defense in the country square in the face. After seeing what kind of pressure Auburn was able to put on Will Rogers, I’ve got very little hope that Miss St will be able to put up much of a fight here.
It may take a few quarters, but I expect Georgia to hold Miss St to 13 points or less while they score 24-30 points of their own. The question is, can Miss St hold off Georgia long enough to cover? I tend to think that Kirby & Co have hit their stride, so I will be betting on Georgia to get the cover here. Not touching the totals though.
Georgia -16.5
Texas A&M (+1.5) vs Auburn (-1.5)
O/U: 48
Kick: 7:30pm ET
Location: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL
Broadcast: SEC Network
AND NOW FOR THE MAIN EVENT.
Given my years of yelling from the rooftops that Jimothy T Fisher is the most overrated coach in modern history, this season has been incredibly satisfying for me. Not only is he one of the most expensive FBS head coaches in terms of overall contract value, but his current roster includes the first true big-budget NIL signing class in college football history. Texas A&M paid their way into the “best” signing class ever.
Just to not be bowl eligible.
I know what you’re thinking.
“But B Wil…they’ve only lost 6 games this season. They haven’t missed the bowl game yet.”
Well that would be true if this were some other team. But they still have the SEC West leading LSU Tigers to face. That’s another loss for sure. But this week, they have the misfortune of facing an Auburn team and the worst possible time.
Auburn had all but quit on Bryan Harsin after looking terrible on offense all year. The abrupt firing instantly boosted the defensive performance, the offensive output, and the intensity of the players. And that was on a short week where the firing happened.
So what would you be expecting after the boost to morale, more players touching the field, a brand new Football Performance Facility being shown to the players, and a fanbase reinvigorated for the first home contest with an Auburn legend at the helm?
Caddy and the remaining staff put more guys on the field last week than we had seen all season. As a result, the defense played inspired for an entire game, something they hadn’t done all season. With that trial run under his belt and I full week to fine-tune, I expect this to be an Auburn victory, straight up. Combined with Devon Achane’s absence due to injury, and this is a foregone conclusion. Auburn plays their most inspired game of the year. I’m GUARANTEEING an Auburn victory today, and betting my biggest single bet this season on an Auburn cover.
The good guys cover by -1.5
Auburn -1.5
So that’s the betting weekend. Which picks do you like? Love? Hate? Let me know in the comments below, and check back for the picks as the betting weekend progresses. Most importantly, just sit back and enjoy the games. Week 11 is underway!
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