Now that’s more like it! We busted out with a 6-1 record last week, with only a homer pick of Auburn covering keeping us from being perfect. As shameful as that loss was, it was easier to take with the positive momentum we gained for the weekend.
Week 9:
Auburn +4.5 ❌
Auburn vs Arkansas OVER 60.5 ✔
Florida +23.5 ✔
Mizzou +3.5 ✔
Mizzou vs South Carolina UNDER 45 ✔
Tennessee -11.5 ✔
Ole Miss -2.5 ✔
Week 9: 6-1
Overall 36-32-3
Kentucky (+1) vs Mizzou (-1)
O/U: 40
Kick: 12:00pm ET
Location: Memorial Stadium, Columbia, Missouri
Broadcast: SEC Network
Mizzou has improved steadily on defense and almost none at all on offense. That makes for some low scoring games and, if the opponent’s offense is bad enough, some wins for this year’s Mizzou Tigers. Good thing for them that Kentucky falls squarely into that category.
Sure, Kentucky has got Will Levis, but he’s not the polished passer he’s been hyped up to be. Kentucky’s RB’s are key to keeping the offense moving along with Will Levis’ running ability, and Mizzou has the defense to stifle those things. Combine that with Kentucky’s tough defense and we’ve got a game that’s got “UNDER” written all over it.
This is a situation where Kentucky has the headline player and reputation, but not the production to justify being favored. So they aren’t. The problem is, with an offense as bad as Mizzou’s can be, I have no faith in Mizzou to win this game in the biggest moments. I do, however, want to count on these two defenses doing what they’ve done all season and keep the points low. Give me the UNDER for this one so we can watch a defensive struggle and not worry about who wins or loses.
UNDER 40
Florida (+2) vs Texas A&M (-2)
O/U: 53
Kick: 12:00pm ET
Location: Kyle Field, College Station, TX
Broadcast: ESPN
I won’t pretend not to be thrilled that Jimbo Fisher is sitting at 3-5 on the season with a $100M contract and an NIL-funded roster that most teams would kill for. I’m ecstatic. But Jimbo has his team playing better than they had previously, and that’s not to be taken lightly. Don’t want to bet against him and let the hate blind us. They’ve gone through 3 different QBs, and we’re still not sure who will see the bulk of the snaps this weekend.
Florida has gone through the bulk of their SEC schedule, and last week’s loss to Georgia took all remaining wind out of their sales. They’ve seen a few players shut it down for the season to save eligibility, which is essentially a team waving the white flag on the season. Anthony Richardson is still dynamic though, and they’ve got a couple of playmakers that can make big chunk plays for Richardson. And against a defense like Texas A&M’s that hasn’t exactly been “shut down” this season, A&M should absolutely be wary of the cornered Gators.
So what’s the outcome? These teams are eerily similar, with both able to churn out yardage in some form, but both struggle to score TDs. Both have mediocre defenses as well. With the home crowd and the tiny bit of momentum I could see A&M playing with last week, it’s hard for me to pick against them. I can’t, however, pick them to cover. That’s the trouble with two shaky teams: you can’t trust either team to do their jobs. So we won’t. Texas A&M is reportedly having issues with the flu in their locker room, but we can’t even be sure who that’s going to keep off the field. Too much uncertainty. Going to make this one a big ole PASS and just enjoy a competitive SEC football game.
PASS
Tennessee (+8.5) vs Georgia (-8.5)
O/U: 65
Kick: 3:30pm ET
Location: Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA
Broadcast: CBS
In the biggest game of the weekend, we have the best offense in the country taking on what is a very good Georgia offense. Not to be confused with the quick strike offense that Tennessee employs, the bulldogs mostly grind opponents down before pouring it on. But their passing game has taken steps forward this year for sure.
The question in this matchup will be whether or not the Georgia secondary will be up for the hellish onslaught of the Tennessee WR core. They haven’t faced anybody who can put points up as consistently as Hendon Hooker and these pass catchers, so there’s reason for Georgia to be concerned.
For Tennessee, their pass defense has been spotty (Bama put up 49 points on them, remember?) but their run defense has been solid. That’s a great matchup for this game since Georgia prefers to churn out possessions on the ground, but capitalize over the top.
We know who these teams are at this point. Georgia just suffered a huge loss with LB Nolan Smith, their best pass rusher, and the timing couldn’t be worse. Georgia wasn’t great at rushing the passer anyway, and losing a guy with his experience and productivity against this team? Bad news. I couldn’t call the final result, because I think Georgia comes in determined to prove something, but I definitely think Tennessee keeps up with Georgia. I’m taking the Vols to cover but staying away from the totals.
Tennessee +8.5
Liberty (+14.5) vs Arkansas (-14.5)
O/U: 61.5
Kick: 4:00pm ET
Location: Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, AR
Broadcast: SEC Network
Arkansas throttles our home team Tigers last week. Don’t let that sway you, though. We are a bad team. Liberty is not as bad as Auburn, so try not to let the memory of our boys getting run over by Arkansas worry you too much.
Arkansas is great at running, ok at passing, and great at letting good opponents do either. And Liberty is a pretty good offensive team, even if they aren’t especially explosive.
The reason this matchup will be close is because though Liberty isn’t very explosive on offense, they are steady and consistently on schedule. When an offensive mind like Hugh Freeze has a chance to scheme up for a bad defense long enough, he’s going to do some damage. And to make things even better, Liberty is one of the best defensive units in the nation, by the numbers of course. They’re used to pushing around G5 opponents, and those numbers are a little more friendly for that reason, but it still speaks to a certain level of discipline and proficiency in their scheme that other teams (Auburn) lack. So while the size and speed will be a little new to Liberty, it won’t be foreign to them.
That’s why I’m taking Liberty to cover +14.5 and avoiding the totals.
Liberty +14.5
Alabama (-13) vs LSU (+13)
O/U: 56
Kick: 7:00pm ET
Location: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA
Broadcast: ESPN
This matchup used to be prime time. Must see TV. It’s a big game, for sure, but only because the winner will take control of the West. It’s no longer the defacto SEC Championship game that it served as once Saban got things going in Tuscaloosa. And Bama hasn’t been nearly as dominant over the last two years as they had in years past.
Bama has frequently struggled defending the pass, struggled in pass protection, and had to look for WR1 in the transfer portal for 2 straight seasons. While teams like Tennessee are on the rise, LSU has managed to bring some sort of consistency to its program which had always had been flush with talent. That and a strong transfer portal haul in the off-season has Bryan Kelly and the Bayou Bengals in prime position to take 1st place in the West with a win.
LSU has put things together well enough for them to win this game. I’m not certain if they will, but I definitely think they hang around. I’ll be betting on LSU to cover by the pregame margin of +13.5 or even better on the live betting if LSU gets down early. LSU will not lose this game by more than 13 points.
LSU +13
South Carolina (-6.5) vs Vanderbilt (+6.5)
O/U: 49
Kick: 7:30pm ET
Location: FirstBank Stadium, Nashville, TN
Broadcast: SEC Network
South Carolina isn’t a good team. They might even be a bad team. Spencer Rattler certainly isn’t the difference maker they were hoping he was. But Vanderbilt is still a bad team, and that’s what’s important. I’ll spare you the analysis and just bet on a bad team to be bad. South Carolina covers by a TD here.
South Carolina -6.5
Auburn (+12.5) vs Mississippi St (-12.5)
O/U: 51
Kick: 7:30pm ET
Location: TDavis-Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS
Broadcast: ESPN2
And that brings us to the biggest game of the night (for us). We know who Auburn has been so far this season. There’s a good chance that we are a bad team and it’s mostly a talent issue. It certainly seems that way at linebacker and offensive line. But was the team playing under its potential due to Bryan Harsin pushing the team into despair? Was the weight of his offensive decisions making this team worse? Will Coach Caddy’s debut imbue this team with more fight and spirit than they’ve shown so far this season?
Call me sentimental, but I’m betting that this team will feel refreshed and a little lighter this week. I know Miss St’s pass game will try to isolate our LBs for some touchdowns, but I think our staff will be ready to counter that and put some new offensive looks on the field as well. That’s the benefit of a coaching change: The other team has no idea what to expect. Tendencies are broken and game film is worthless. We have the element of surprise on our side, and it yields dividends for us to cover tonight against Miss St.
Auburn +12.5
So that’s the betting weekend. Which picks do you like? Love? Hate? Let me know in the comments below, and check back for the picks as the betting weekend progresses. Most importantly, just sit back and enjoy the games. Week 10 is underway!
Catch more betting conversation with B Wil on The War Rapport’s Twitter Account.
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