The Auburn Tigers play host to one of the biggest games in college basketball this week.
Despite being blown out by Florida on the road this past weekend, Auburn rose to no. 13 in the AP Top 25 and will host No. 11 South Carolina in one of the biggest SEC games of the year. The Gamecocks are coming into the contest red hot, having won their last seven games, and are looking to maintain their tie of first place atop the conference standings.
Here are five things to know about USC before they take on the Tigers.
Carolina has a bus at center
Allow us to introduce you to BJ Mack: A 6-foot-8, 270-pound mammoth of a center for the Gamecocks. Despite not leading the team in scoring (13.6 PPG), Mack does lead the team in percentage of possessions used at an impressive 28.5%. He takes 31% of all shots when on the floor for USC. While those numbers may be impressive, his efficiency isn’t – his true shooting percentage of 52.4% is the worst out of Carolina’s five starters.
Coupled with his actual shooting percentage of 40.8%, Mack makes for a fun matchup but lacks statistical emphasis to go with his size.
Pace hasn’t been the Gamecocks’ thing
Before Lamont Paris came to South Carolina the final few teams underneath Frank Martin loved to push the pace, finishing top 65 in adjusted tempo during Martin’s final four seasons. Paris has elected to do things a little differently, playing a much slower style on the offensive end. USC’s adjusted tempo of 62.7 ranks 355th nationally – that’s 12th worst in the country.
Despite the lack of tempo, Paris has directed a pretty efficient offense. USC ranks top 15 in assists per field goals made, they shoot well from three, and they grab offensive boards at a high rate. 72.6 points per game doesn’t look so bad when pace is factored in. This is a methodical team that has reached their 21-3 record through slow, decisive play.
Auburn’s defense may meet its match… maybe
The Gamecocks rank top three in the SEC in these categories:
– Defensive efficiency
– Effective field goal percentage
– Offensive rebound percentage
– Free throw rate
– 2-point field goal percentage
– 3-point field goal percentage
Add that to a conference-leading points per game total of 64.0, and it looks like USC may have the best defense in the conference.
Almost.
See, Auburn ranks first in the SEC in five of those categories. The Tigers also rank No. 1 and No. 5 in block and steal percentage… something South Carolina ranks dead last in.
The Gamecocks are going to lean on their defense in this one, but don’t think for a second Auburn won’t, either.
It’s either Meechie or Ta’Lon
Both Meechie Johnson and Ta’Lon Cooper have been extremely valuable to South Carolina this season.
I’d argue that Cooper, the more efficient shooter of the two, is the more important player in this matchup for a couple of reasons.
First, he’s simply the better shooter as mentioned. The senior guard is shooting 51.2% from the floor and a blistering 45.9% from deep. Compare that to Johnson, who shoots 40.5% and 33.3% from three. Cooper only averages 10.4 points per game, but as noted earlier, the Gamecocks’ pace doesn’t allow their offense to put up a ton of shots every night. There’s also BJ Mack and Meechie Johnson, who are first and second on the team in field goal attempts.
Second, Cooper distributes the ball more often. Sure, Johnson may find himself off-ball more often, but numbers are numbers. Cooper averages 4.4 assists with a 24.8% assist rate. Johnson averages 3.0 assists with a 21.7% assist rate. Cooper also averages less turnovers than Johnson.
Both will factor heavily into the outcome of this game, but my money is on Cooper to be the bigger factor overall.
21-3 overall, 9-2 in the SEC is some serious basketball
South Carolina has come roaring out of the gates in Lamont Paris’ second season in Columbia, and his 21-3 record includes some impressive wins to boot.
USC has wins over Grand Canyon, Mississippi State, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Ole Miss – all legitimate opponents. This final regular season stretch will prove to be tough, as KenPom believes the Gamecocks will lose five of their last seven games, but it’s been an impressive season regardless of what happens.
And yet, the computer models don’t give South Carolina much love.
South Carolina has a better Quad 1 record than Auburn (3-2 to 2-4), but is 38 spots behind the Tigers in the NET rankings at No. 45. This isn’t even a Quad 1 opportunity for Bruce Pearl’s squad. KenPom also doesn’t have much faith in USC. Not only does the computer model thing they will struggle to end the season, but they’re also ranked No. 45 in KP’s metrics. That’s surprisingly low for a 20-win SEC team with a winning Quad 1 record.
Related
