Another winning week is helping us get back to .500 on the year. The only regret I have is not checking to see what Will Levis’s injury status was before betting Kentucky to cover (rookie mistake). If I had, we’d have gone 5-1. But we’ll take our winning week and keep it pressing.
Here’s how last week shook out:
Mississippi St -9 ✔
Tennessee -3 ✔
Tennessee vs LSU UNDER 64 ✔
1st Half Auburn +17 ✔
Ole Miss -17 ✔
Kentucky -6 ❌
Bama -24 ❌
Week 6: 5-2; Overall 24-26-3
Auburn (+15.5) vs Ole Miss (-15.5)
O/U: 55
Kick: 12:00pm ET
Location: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, MS
Broadcast: ESPN
Welp…we’re here. Auburn just might be as bad as everybody said we’d be before the season started. The team is still fighting and trying their best, but there’s not much hope to be had when your offensive line is both bad and injured. The more other positions get dinged up, the less likely it seems that we’ll be able to put together a season-saving push to get to bowl eligibility. Don’t get me wrong, Arkansas and Texas A&M looking like possible wins in my book. But nothing is a given anymore.
Ole Miss is looking formidable so far. And at home, they’re likely to play very well against an Auburn team that seems to have their number almost every year. They run the ball very well, and Auburn’s run defense is the closest thing we’ve got to a defensive weakness. Combine that with their improved defensive play this year, and it just doesn’t make sense to bet Auburn in any capacity here.
If the Auburn offense stalls out and leaves the defense out to dry, the score can get ugly off of just lopsided possessions alone. And I wouldn’t expect Lane to take his foot off the gas with how much trouble Auburn has given Ole Miss historically.
As much as it hurts to say, this feels like a 17-to-20 point loss for Auburn. If you’ve got your reservations about betting against the home team, we understand. I’ll be officially making this a Pass recommendation, but I’ve communicated my thoughts clearly.
Pass
Alabama (-9.5) vs Tennessee (+9.5)
O/U: 66
Kick: 3:30pm ET
Location: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN
Broadcast: CBS
If there’s any game on Bama’s schedule that they’re even remotely likely to lose, it’s this one. A road game against a quality opponent isn’t something that Nick Saban has to endure very often, but this year’s Tennessee’s team looks legit.
Tennessee is actually giving up quite a few yards through the air, though. They’re giving up over 300 yards through the air per game, and that includes their weaker out of conference matchups. If Bryce Young plays, Bama has what they will need to light the Vols up and likely walk out of Knoxville with a win. If he doesn’t? This game will be very interesting.
Bama didn’t look great against what should have been an overmatched Texas A&M team last week. Milroe looked serviceable throwing the football, but the plan was to clearly keep him from making mistakes in the passing game. That conservative approach made for a much closer game than many expected, including me (way to blow the cover, Bama 😒). Tennessee’s run defense is stout, so a run-heavy game plan by Alabama would play right into the Vols’ hands.
But with Saban keeping the status of Bryce Young under wraps, I think it’s safer to lean Tennessee here. Bama has to throw it to win this game, and they clearly don’t trust Milroe to do that. And with Tennessee being able to push the ball downfield, a relatively untested (Ewers got knocked out of the game, remember?) Bama secondary should have their hands full with a ton of stuff that Heupel has saved just for the Crimson Tide. I like Tennessee to cover here and an inspired home team to get the win outright.
Tennessee +9.5
Vanderbilt (+37.5) vs Georgia (-37.5)
O/U: 57
Kick: 3:30pm ET
Location: Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA
Broadcast: SEC Network
Is Georgia back to being themselves? Their home win over our Auburn Tigers don’t really tell the story considering how bad Auburn’s offensive line has been this season. Teams will be able to play exceptionally well against us for that reason. But Georgia’s offense didn’t look as dynamic and unstoppable as it did in early September either. Did they lose something? A few injuries here and there, sure, but their main playmakers McConkey and Bowers don’t seem to be hitting as many home runs right now.
The question is, will it matter against Vandy? They put up a fight against Ole Miss for a quarter or so, then turned back into pumpkins as Ole Miss went on an insane run to end the game AND cover nicely. Vandy has fight and focus. They just don’t have the talent though. So it’s more a factor of whether or not Georgia will be motivated to show up and dominate, or if they’ll simply go through the motions until they realize it’s too close, then pull away. The danger in the latter is that there will be a limited number of possessions if they wake up in the 3rd qtr and flip the switch. Then it’ll be a 31-point cover instead of a 41-point cover.
But I’m taking a chance here. Georgia covered us easily because of the talent differential between their D-line and our O-line, so I’m riding with talent yet again here. Georgia to cover, but not touching the total.
Georgia -37.5
Arkansas (+1) vs BYU (-1)
O/U: 66.5
Kick: 3:30pm ET
Location: LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, UT
Broadcast: ESPN
Arkansas travels way out of the home footprint to take on BYU in Utah, and that’s definitely the weirdest away game trip for an SEC team this season. Arkansas takes with it the 2nd worst SEC defense (to Vandy, of course) to meet BYU’s leaky defense.
If Arkansas was completely healthy, this would be an easy pick for them. This is essentially a pick ’em game, and the talent differential would be the deciding factor, except Arkansas’s best player is coming back from a head injury. Yes, a head injury. Call me crazy, but I don’t see them running KJ Jefferson nonstop to keep BYU’s defense honest and off-balance when he’s got a soft spot on his noggin. Unfortunately for the Hogs, that’s what it will probably take to take and maintain control of this game. BYU has been terrible against the run this season, and the Hogs do that fantastically when KJ Jefferson is running the ball effectively. Is Arkansas willing to run him that much?
The good thing for BYU is that their pass offense has been great this season, and all of their metrics improve when they play at home. Against an inconsistent and injured Arkansas team, I honestly like BYU to pull out the win, and the cover by default. The points total is high because of how poor these defenses have been, but I can’t rule out an inspired home defensive performance by BYU, so I’m avoiding the total here.
BYU -1
LSU (+2.5) vs Florida (-2.5)
O/U: 50.5
Kick: 7:00 ET
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL
Broadcast: ESPN
After watching LSU’s offense flounder for 2 straight weeks, including a terrible showing against Tennessee last week, it’s fair to say that we know exactly who LSU is. Terrible offense, decent defense, completely unengaged receivers. But they’re playing Florida this week. And for the last 2 years, they’ve come into this game as an extremely mediocre or terrible team, then come out with a victory. Was that some Ed Orgeron motivational magic? Or is it in LSU’s nature to play up for Florida?
Florida has been decent this season, but they’ve got some of the same problems. Motivated defense, slow moving offense, but the major difference is that their QB is a gamebreaker that can change things quickly. The question, of course, is whether or not either of these teams can break these tendencies to play outside of themselves for this matchup, or perhaps to try and build some new momentum for the 2nd half of the season. It’s definitely possible, and we’ve seen teams play inspired and look better than themselves for a week.
The thing here is, I’ve seen LSU look so poor this season that it’s hard to lay money on them being the team to break out this week. Florida has played up to the level of competition, including staying in the game against Tennessee. They’ve been more proficient in the passing game and every defense always plays better at home. The contrasting disfunction of LSU’s passing game has me feeling Florida -2.5 is the play here. I’m willing to take the chance that this could be a bonkers game that doesn’t fit the mold of what these teams’ stats suggest because it’s a rivalry. But I stand on my pick. And following the trends, I’m taking the Under as well.
Florida -2.5, UNDER 50.5
Mississippi St (-3.5) vs Kentucky (+3.5)
O/U: 50.5
Kick: 7:30pm ET
Location: Kroger Field, Lexington, KY
Broadcast: SEC Network
Kentucky isn’t as good around Will Levis as they were last year, and that’s part of why they don’t look as good on offense. He’s not the prospect the NFL chatter says he is, but he’s going to provide a lift over the QB who played in his stead last week.
Kentucky’s offensive line, and by correlation its run game, are both worse this year than they were last year. Miss St’s defense isn’t great at rushing the passer, but Kentucky’s passing game isn’t their strenth. Miss St’s run defense is actually just a bit better than Kentucky’s rush offense.
But when it’s all said and done, Miss St is healthy and has an experienced, accurate QB at the helm. That’s the difference, and that’s why I’m taking Miss St to cover. Miss St’s pass defense is bad enough to give up some points, so I won’t touch the total.
Miss St -3.5
So that’s the betting weekend. Which picks do you like? Love? Hate? Let me know in the comments below, and check back for the picks as the betting weekend progresses. Most importantly, just sit back and enjoy the games. Week 7 is underway!
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