Ok, so I’m not going to brag about last week because last week was nothing to brag about. What I am happy about is that whether betting correctly or incorrectly, we’re starting to get a beat on these teams as they play more, and that’s nothing but a good thing. Unlike last season, I didn’t wait to start betting Georgia like the great team they are, and it’s paid dividends. Ole Miss is rounding into form, and we were able to cash in on that too.
Bama and Tennessee had what should have been their last cupcake games before SEC play, and even after tough games the week before, both teams crushed a lesser opponent instead of taking their feet off the proverbial gas. Were their close games motivation? Did they have something to prove to themselves? Not sure, but it’ll be noted going forward that these two teams may just be the real deal and had off weeks in Week 2.
Georgia -25 ✔
Georgia vs South Carolina UNDER 55 (PUSH) ➖
Penn St vs Auburn UNDER 47.5 ❌
Ole Miss -17 ✔
Ole Miss vs GA Tech UNDER 63 ✔
LA Monroe vs Alabama UNDER 61.5 ❌
Akron +47.5 ❌
Miss St -3 ❌
Florida -23.5 ❌
Miami +6.5 ❌
Week 3: 3-6-1; Overall 14-17-1
The Miss St pick over LSU was just a guess, and one that I wasn’t afraid to make. Miss St may have the system, but LSU has the horses, and Miss St can be defended. And no matter what the national narrative is about Bryan Kelly, their world didn’t fall apart after that FSU loss.
So yea, we’re learning. But can we do some winning while we’re learning? Of course we can. Let’s turn it around this week.
Mizzou (+7) vs Auburn (-7)
O/U: 51
Kick: 12:00pm ET
Location: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL
Broadcast: ESPN
We made a point to avoid betting the home team’s line last weekend and still got beaten because they couldn’t keep the other team from scoring points. We couldn’t keep it respectable against Penn St, and no matter how you cut it, that’s a bad sign for us Auburn fans.
If there’s any bright side to the injury hullabaloo with the Auburn QBs, it’s that the QB rotation should be simplified. Robby Ashford gets the start and Holden Geriner gets something to do as well. Mizzou is bad against the run again this year, and Auburn has enough data to know what its strengths are. So far, the data says the O-line is better at the run than the pass this year. And with a running QB slated to start, this is the matchup Auburn needs to get off the snide.
That doesn’t tell us what we need to know to bet the points total, because neither our pass rush or run defense are good enough to make any assumption about the total. So I’m taking Auburn -7. If Auburn can’t cover here, it’s going to be a long season…
Auburn -7
Bowling Green (+31) vs Miss St (-31)
O/U: 52.5
Kick: 12:00pm ET
Location: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS
Broadcast: SEC Network
Miss St didn’t hold us down last week, and it might say more about LSU’s resilience than Miss St’s ineptitude. So we’re left to guess whether Miss St will come home and get that feeling back against a bad Bowling Green team.
There could be a hangover, or they could try to hit a home run to get back on track. Similar to Tennessee, Florida, and Bama last week, this will be the last chance to right the ship before going into full SEC play.
I’m sure Miss St will be fine, but I’m not betting this one. We’ve got an entire season to let them pick off unsuspecting SEC foes. I’m taking a pass.
Pass
Kent St (+45) vs Georgia (-45)
O/U: 62
Kick: 12:00pm ET
Location: Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA
Broadcast: ESPN+
Georgia is the truth. We’ve been riding them every week, and there’s no reason to stop now. If they can put 50+ points up on an SEC opponent on the road, they should have no problem doing so at home against a G5 opponent.
Georgia to cover, leaving the points alone. They like to score too much these days, but not enough that I can count on it happening.
Georgia -45
Florida (+11) vs Tennessee (-11)
O/U: 62.0
Kick: 3:30pm ET
Location: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN
Broadcast: CBS
Florida started off the season strong with a win against Utah, but hasn’t been able to keep it going with a rough offensive showing in a loss to Kentucky and a very narrow home win over South Florida. So game 1 may have been an exception for the Gators.
Tennessee has been cruising and the Hendon Hooker experiment was the perfect addition to a Josh Heupel offense that wants to go go go. And with the injuries sustained by Florida so far, I don’t think this one will be as interesting as the fans are hoping for.
I expect Tennessee to continue rolling by 14 points or more and get the cover. Not touching points. I don’t know how much fight Florida’s defense will put up.
Tennessee -11
Tulsa (+21) vs Ole Miss (-21)
O/U: 65.5
Kick: 4:00pm ET
Location: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, MS
Broadcast: SEC Network
Ole Miss may not have found their stride on offense quite yet, but they were blessed with a very soft “preseason” schedule unlike anybody else in the conference. During which, their defense is actually what has carried them. Even with this powder-soft September schedule, they’re only averaging 225yds/game through the air. Most of their offensive damage has been done on the ground, averaging 271yds/game. But again, they have played the weakest schedule of every SEC conference team so far.
In contrast, Tulsa is doing most of their damage through the air, and minimal damage on the ground. With how effective Ole Miss’s defense has looked so far this year, coming into Vaught-Hemingway one-dimensional is not a good thing for a visiting team.
So we will for the last time this season ride a hot Ole Miss defense to cover against a butter-soft opponent. And with the run game doing the work, we’ll take the under to go along with it.
Ole Miss -21, UNDER 65.5
Northern Illinois (+26.5) vs Kentucky (-26.5)
O/U: 54
Kick: 7:00pm ET
Location: Kroger Field, Lexington, KY
Broadcast: ESPN2
So Kentucky is for real…I guess. Their offense isn’t what it should be with a QB as highly touted as Will Levis. He’s fine, but not great. And he still has the propensity to turn the ball over, even when they’ve got the other team overmatched. Without Rodriguez in the fold, they won’t be able to reach their peak as an offense. And how high is that peak, anyway?
We won’t have to worry about that this week. The Kentucky defense is going to stifle another bad G5 opponent and give that Kentucky O plenty of chances to put up points. Not that they’ll be able to take advantage, necessarily, but they won’t have to worry about losing this game.
Last week they pitched a shutout against Youngstown St, even with Levis throwing for 2 INTs to match his 2 TDs. Until this Kentucky team can look completely competent on offense, it’s safe to bet the under on them. Mark Stoops has the defense humming, and we like to see consistency from a unit.
Northern Illinois shouldn’t be able to put up enough points to make it interesting, but I still don’t trust Kentucky entirely. So let’s pass on the spread for today.
UNDER 54
Arkansas (+2) vs Texas A&M (-2)
O/U: 51
Kick: 7:00pm ET
Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (Neutral Site)
Broadcast: ESPN
This is the game of the weekend in the SEC. Arkansas’s offense has been humming while their defense has been screaming for help, letting everybody put up touchdowns against them. Texas A&M can overpay for their head coach (heh), can buy the best recruiting class in history, but they can’t buy competent offense to save their lives. And their defense hasn’t quite played up to their 2021 form either.
This game will almost entirely come down to whether or not Texas A&M can find some offensive rhythm against Arkansas defense. Weaknesses match up perfectly, so it should be an entertaining mess of a game. But I just cannot trust Texas A&M to put forth any sort of consistent offense. Even if Arkansas is susceptible against the pass, Arkansas can possess the ball for long stretches with KJ Jefferson’s playmaking ability and limit those opportunities.
In what is essentially a coin flip on a neutral site, I’m betting against Texas A&M yet again and predicting that the Hogs come out on top 2 years in a row. Jimbo is well on his way to a 5-loss season. Without knowing how bad Arkansas’s defense will be, let’s stay away from the point total.
Arkansas +2
Charlotte (+23.5) vs South Carolina (-23.5)
O/U: 67
Kick: 7:30pm ET
Location: Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, SC
Broadcast: ESPNU
South Carolina’s defense is not good. Neither is their QB Spencer Rattler. He seems to be operating as a threshold QB. If he’s facing a defense below a certain threshold, he will play well and put up big numbers. If he plays a defense above a certain threshold, he will look bad. The only differentiation is if the players around him are good enough to affect the game monumentally, and South Carolina isn’t that type of team.
Lucky for them, Charlotte falls below that threshold. The Charlotte defense is awful, so South Carolina should look competent again on offense. I like them to cover, but staying away from the points because I genuinely have no idea if they can put up points against South Carolina.
South Carolina -23.5
Vanderbilt (+41) vs Alabama (-41)
O/U: 59
Kick: 7:30pm ET
Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
Broadcast: SEC Network
We don’t need to overthink this one either. Bama is good, Vandy is bad. Even with Vandy’s improvement, the talent differential here is insurmountable.
For the first time in a long time, I feel like I may be underrating Bama? They’ve put up offense consistently on everybody except for Texas, which was an away game against a team with actual talent. That’s not the case here. It’s not completely impossible that Vandy could muster a garbage time FG or TD that blows this spread either.
I’m just going to pass on this one. We don’t know who Bama is for sure until they play another quality opponent, and the chalk has not been kind to me these last two weeks.
Pass
New Mexico (+31) vs LSU (-31)
O/U: 45
Kick: 7:30pm ET
Location: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA
Broadcast: ESPN+
I think it’s fair to say that LSU has bounced back after their early loss to Florida St. They handled business against Southern, surprised slightly against Miss St, and now end their September against a bad opponent. It’s the perfect setup for them to tighten things up before they hit the meat of their SEC schedule.
Without thinking too much, LSU should cover here. That point spread is incredibly low though, so I’ll be the over. Things could get out of hand points wise whether the visiting team puts them up or not.
LSU -31; OVER 45
So that’s the betting weekend. Which picks do you like? Love? Hate? Let me know in the comments below, and check back for the picks as the betting weekend progresses. Most importantly, just sit back and enjoy the games. Week 4 is underway!
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