It’s that time of the year again. Betting With B Wil is back!
We’re going to stick to print and audio for the episodes this year, because much easier to keep up with that way. We’ll also do some fan interaction on twitter for some group sourcing of all the picks for the weekend. And hey, you never know…we might even make a bet with the fan picks!
So we’re talking games featuring SEC opponents only, and we’re taking them in order of kick time. And remember, we’re talking spreads and totals only, with the option to pass on any game we don’t have a sure enough beat on.
Spread values for games between FBS and FCS schools are often the last to be released and aren’t usually available until the morning of game day. We don’t usually like to bet those since (1) they can’t be parlayed, (2) the spreads are perception based and incredibly wide, and (3) the coaching strategies against these teams are not normal. We may provide details for the game if the line is available at the time of writing, but we won’t render a decision one way or another on the spread of those games.
And with that being said? Let’s get started with the Betting With B Wil Picks for Week 1 of the college football season.
Oregon (+17) vs Georgia (-17)
O/U: 54.5
Kick: 3:30pm ET
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Broadcast: ABC
This is one some Auburn fans will have undoubtedly had their eyes on regardless of the betting outcome, just to see if former Auburn QB Bo Nix can muster some magic against what will be a familiar foe to both him and new Oregon HC Dan Lanning. Georgia lost a lot, but it’s not like the cupboards are bare at all. They return experience and slot Will Muschamp into the DC job after he spent last season on staff. There’s no issues with continuity on either side of the ball then, and that’s a bad thing for Oregon.
I don’t like to overthink things. Oregon has new everything with all of their coaches and most of their starters gone. Georgia has some new faces but they’ve been preparing for a while to start and have been groomed (heh) to come out hungry and prove that 2021 wasn’t a fluke. I like the Dawgs to cover and the under, even if it’s a late pull away after Georgia grinds the ducks down.
Georgia -17, Under 54.5
Cincinnati (+6.5) vs Arkansas (-6.5)
O/U: 53
Kick: 3:30pm ET
Location: Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, AR
Broadcast: ESPN
The season kicks off for Arkansas with a stiffer test than the usual G5 or FCS foe to scrimmage against. Cincinnati visits Fayetteville having lost most of the key pieces from their 2021 CFP Playoff team. Working for both of these teams is continuity with no new key coaches or coordinators. That gives us reason to believe they’ll play close to the form they ended last season with.
The exception? Arkansas is returning their starting QB and Cincy isn’t. Ridder may not have been a world beater, but he was a seasoned and experienced senior QB, and there’s no way Cincy can replace that kind of cog in game 1 of the season. For that reason, I’m taking Arkansas to cover and the over since I expect KJ Jefferson to be productive and the Arkansas defense to be opportunistic.
Arkansas -6.5, Over 53
Troy (+21.0) vs Ole Miss (-21.0)
O/U: 57
Kick: 3:30pm ET
Location: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, MS
Broadcast: SEC Network
Lane Kiffin lost his QB and his DC in the offseason, along with a couple of significant contributors on defense and offense. But he also cleaned up in the transfer portal, allowing him to fill in the gaps immediately. What’s lost in the introduction of Jaxson Dart at QB, though, is that he doesn’t have the benefit of being in his 2nd year at Ole Miss and in Lane’s offense. Matt Corral had a dreadful year 1 splitting time at QB before everything came together for him in year 2. Even if Luke Altmyer gets the nod instead, experience is still lacking. So it won’t be a well-run machine just quite yet.
So what do I expect in this game? I expect Ole Miss to put up points and cover the spread. If there is some rough going, it won’t last for more than a half, and Ole Miss might play QB roulette between their 2 QB candidates. When you’ve got a backup who’s capable of being the starter, it means the handcuffs won’t be on when he comes in, and points will continue to be scored. I like Ole Miss to cover, but no preference on point totals. It’s possible for this offense to struggle initially or go full blast, but I’m not sure which.
Ole Miss -21.0
Utah (-3) vs Florida (+3)
O/U: 51.5
Kick: 7:00pm ET
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL
Broadcast: ESPN
This is the kind of game that really makes opening weekend (the real opening weekend) exciting. A Pac-12 team that’s been as consistent as any team playing a beloved SEC program in the midst of a rebuilding year? Sign me up.
There’s not much to know other than Utah plays great defense with shaky offense, and that Florida might have QB1 held over from last season, but no continuity on either side of the ball with a new HC and new staff. Florida is not bereft of talent, but playing a great defensive team when you haven’t had a chance to figure out who you are yet isn’t the best situation for a team looking for a new start. It might get dicey, but I like Utah to cover. The under is tempting, but I there’s too much I don’t know about Utah’s offense and Florida’s OC to make that call.
Utah -3
Miami OH (+15.0) vs Kentucky (-15.0)
O/U: 55
Kick: 7:00pm ET
Location: Kroger Field, Lexington, KY
Broadcast: ESPN+
Will Levis is back for an encore after a thrilling year 1 at Kentucky that saw him lead the best Kentucky offense in the last 15 years. His name is being mentioned for consideration as a top 3 QB selected in the draft, so he’s got some expectation on his shoulders. His most important teammate may be RB Chris Rodriguez, who is sitting out this game due to disciplinary issues after some off-field trouble this offseason. Kavosiey Smoke fills in as a capable playmaker, although he is a little small.
This game comes down to whether or not you think Kentucky and Will Levis will be focused enough coming into year 2 to play up to their potential. For all their ability last year, they had a couple of stinker games where they didn’t come close to covering due to turnovers, bad decisions, and a general malaise on offense. And this Miami OH team isn’t to be slept on either. They had an elite passing game last year, and return their QB and 4 out of 5 offensive linemen. They can put up points.
However, I happen to think Kentucky will be up to the task, winning by 17 and covering the spread. Mark Stoops knows defense, and they found out late last season that committing to running the ball with Levis is just as productive as a deep passing game, so I don’t think they’ll try to outdo themselves. Since I don’t trust them that much, though, I’ll stay away from the total. Just in case Miami OH figures out how to put some points up.
Kentucky -15.0
Memphis (+16.5) vs Miss St (-16.5)
O/U: 57.5
Kick: 7:30pm ET
Location: David Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS
Broadcast: ESPNU
Mike Leach comes into the 2022 season with an established, experience QB who can run his offense to perfection. Last year, the offense took a few games to get going before turning in a couple of truly special performances…like the one in Jordan-Hare Stadium that we will not speak of.
That came after a loss at Memphis, however. A loss that was marred by a controversial call by the refs on a special teams play. It ended up decided the game, and I’m sure Miss St remembers that. While I don’t necessarily expect the game to be in doubt, I’m not sure if that vengeance is enough to make this a lopsided affair, as I’m sure it can be if Will Rodgers and the offense get a rhythm. For that reason, this is a pass on all fronts. This will be one that I’m watching purely for enjoyment, without the stress of having money ride on it.
Pass
Georgia St (+12.5) vs South Carolina (-12.5)
O/U: 55
Kick: 7:30pm ET
Location: Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, SC
Broadcast: ESPN+
Georgia St lives in the memory of Auburn fans as a team that could have sent us reeling in September of the 2021 season. It took some late game heroics from now starter TJ Finley to pull out a win. Georgia St’s record was terrible 5 games into the season, but what they flashed against Auburn is pretty much how they looked for the last 8 games. They went 7-1 and played for their 4th bowl game in 5 years.
South Carolina showed more fight in 2021 than they had in a few years, and the excitement is certainly high for Beamer & Co. They got Spencer Rattler, who most expect to be an upgrade at QB. They got a few more fantastic pieces in the transfer portal on both sides of the ball and, perhaps most importantly, they believe. For game 1 at home, that’s very important. And this time, Georgia St is a known threat vs the unknown threat they were last season against Auburn. South Carolina will have seen them coming and be prepared to defended home turf.
With all that said…I’m not sure how this shakes out. Georgia St ended up being as good as they showed vs Auburn last season, and South Carolina – with all of their upgraded pieces – wouldn’t have incorporated them all into a cohesive product just yet. This game could go a number of ways, and I’m not confident enough to nail down any 1 scenario with my money. I will, however, take the under since I expect this to be a bit of a dog fight and not a high-flying affair.
UNDER 55
Utah St (+42.0) vs Alabama (-42.0)
O/U: 63
Kick: 7:30pm ET
Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
Broadcast: SEC Network
What’s there to say, really? Bama is good enough to beat any G5 team by the proposed 42 point spread. It doesn’t really matter how good the G5 school is. Conversely, Nick Saban is all about getting his players reps deep into the 2-deep for the sake of development, so the laser sharp focus you will likely see for the 1st team won’t be there for the 2nd and 3rd team players that get on the field for Bama.
Consequently, the best bet is the 1st Half line of -27.5, which I’d be comfortable taking in this regard. Will a Heisman winner with a better RB, retooled OL, and yet another stud transfer WR in year 2 of a pro-style offense be better or worse? Right. Points are too unpredictable because of the development effort, so we’ll stay away from them here.
Alabama 1st Half -27.5
Florida St (+3) vs LSU (-3)
O/U: 50
Kick: Sunday 7:30pm ET
Location: The Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Broadcast: ABC
So this isn’t exactly a home game for LSU. But it kind of is. And there’s very little that we know about Bryan Kelly at LSU, because it hasn’t happened yet. The talent that remains is elite, but it’ll be new to Kelly and his system. There are enough transfers for things to take some time to gel, and there’s questions of just how much Kelly’s style will fit the talent he’s got.
On the flip side, FSU is a mystery as well. Who in the hell knows if a team that has underperformed as badly as FSU can turn it around? They’ve recruited reasonably well, stocked some good pickups in the transfer portal, and still had 2 disastrous seasons.
Mike Norvell is coaching for his job and Bryan Kelly is coaching to gain some good will from his fanbase and his team. It isn’t all on the line for him here, so LSU may not be the more desperate party. But they’re damn sure the more talented one. Combined that with the virtual home-field advantage, and I like LSU to cover -3. There’s a fair chance this game will go under the point total of 50, but without any knowledge of these 2 offenses, I’m reluctant to call it.
LSU -3
So that’s the betting weekend. Which picks do you like? Love? Hate? Let me know in the comments below, and check back for the picks as the betting weekend progresses. Most importantly, just sit back and enjoy the games. College Football is BACK!
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