Auburn basketball needs a win over Georgia on Saturday.
The No. 14 Tigers (20-6, 9-4 SEC) are coming off of a shocking loss to Kentucky, a game that featured arguably the Wildcats’ best defensive effort of the year. Auburn was out of sync, lacked focus, and lost one of their leaders and most efficient players to injury in the process.
It’s almost over. The regular season is winding down, and the Tigers can sense it.
It’s time to lock in.
“They can see the light at the end of the tunnel,” Bruce Pearl said earlier this week. These games are all so precious. We can still finish anywhere from first to seventh in this league. I think the guys are locked in and really focused.”
They’re going to really have to focus this weekend against Georgia (15-11, 5-8 SEC), who has lost six out of their last seven games, but poses a threat to the Tigers with their size and individual matchups they can throw at Pearl’s squad.
“…There are 11 teams right now, including Georgia, that are in range (of the NCAA Tournament).”
Here are three things to know about the Georgia Bulldogs.
This is a balanced rotation
Typically most teams have a dominant ball-handler or player that the offense runs through consistently, a player that makes an impact on 24-30% of possessions. Auburn, for instance, has Johni Broome, who is utilized on 29.0% of possessions. The second-closest player on the roster is Aden Holloway, used on 22.5% of possessions.
KenPom takes the time to divide these players based on how often they are used. It starts with “go-to guys,” players who are used on greater than 28% of possessions. Then there’s “significant contributors,” players who are involved on 20-24% of possessions. “Role players,” which are used 16-20% of possessions, “limited roles,” 12-16% of possessions, “nearly invisible,” less than 12% of possessions, and then “benchwarmers,” players who played in fewer than 10% of the team’s minutes.
Georgia does not have a “go-to guy.” They do, however, have five players who are “significant contributors.” Noah Thommasson, Silas Demary, Jabri Abdur-Rahim, Justin Hill, and RJ Melendez are all used on 20-24% of UGA’s possessions. The only starter that isn’t in that category is towering center Russell Tchewa, a 7-foot, 275-pound USF transfer that is used 18.1% of the time but draws free throws better than almost everyone in the Bulldogs’ rotation.
Three guys average double figures for the Dawgs – none of which eclipse 13 points per contest – who are No. 7 in the SEC in scoring (76.1 PPG). If we’re singling out a player that could be a matchup problem for Auburn, it’s likely Thomasson, who’s shot 16-of-39 (41%) from beyond the arc over his last four games. The Bulldogs possess the fifth-tallest team in the conference and will lean on not just their height, but their size at the wing positions. Thomasson stands at 6-foot-4, 210 pounds and switches between shooting guard and small forward. Jabri Abdur-Rahim, Georgia’s leading scorer at 12.7 points per game, is 6-foot-8, 215, and could be an issue for someone like Chad Baker-Mazara. RJ Melendez is 6-foot-7, 210 pounds, and typically plays in a lineup with 6-foot-5 guard Silas Demary.
All of this to say that Georgia doesn’t necessarily have a standout player – but they do have a number of tall, physical matchup problems that could make for an interesting bout against the Tigers.
UGA is on a slide to end the season
One wouldn’t think that with an interesting rotation such as Georgia’s, the Bulldogs would be struggling to win games. Nevertheless, they had lost six straight contests before defeating Vanderbilt by 12 earlier this week. Mike White’s squad starter the year12-3, 2-0 in SEC play and have since slumped to 15-11, 5-8. They don’t play with great pace, they’ve struggled to grab second-chance points despite their size, they don’t shoot particularly well, they turn the ball more than almost everyone in the SEC, and they struggle mightily to distribute the basketball.
Overreliance on the outside shot may be Georgia’s issue. When the Bulldogs have shot 24 threes or more this season, they’re 6-6 (they shot better than their season average of 34.7% in just three of those games). When they shoot 23 threes or less, they’re 9-4.
It could be the outside shot… or it could just be defense.
The Bulldogs cannot protect the rim… but Auburn can
Opponents are shooting 54.8% from inside the arc in SEC play. That’s dead last in the league.
Their perimeter defense isn’t much better at 34.6%, good for 10th in the conference.
Why aren’t the Bulldogs better at protecting the rim with a 7-foot, 275-pound center? Russell Tchewa just hasn’t been effective as a shot blocker (0.6 BPG) and the Bulldogs as a whole just don’t have a lot of great defenders. UGA has allowed opponents to shoot 50% or better from inside the arc 15 times this season. They’re 6-9 in those games. For comparison, Auburn has allowed opponents to shoot 50% or better inside the arc three times this year. The Tigers are 2-1 in those games.
Another fun stat: Opponents have finished a game with an effective field goal percentage and 2-point percentage 50% or higher nine times against Georgia. They’re 1-8 in those games. Auburn hasn’t let that happen all season. They’re 3-2 when an opponent has an effective field goal percentage higher than 50%.
Straight up, Auburn protects the rim better than anyone in the nation, and Georgia has floundered inside the perimeter for over half of their schedule.
